芳烃橡胶早报-20250925

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, with the restart of devices, the de - stocking slows down. Considering the lack of unexpected performance in polyester and future new production, the long - term inventory accumulation is expected. But the processing fee has reached a very low level for a long time, and with the gradual return of PX supply, attention should be paid to the opportunity of expanding processing fees under potential additional maintenance [1]. - For MEG, the near - term domestic oil - based production has a slight reduction in load, coal - based production remains stable, and overseas devices have both maintenance and restart. With the increase in arrivals and high - supply expectations in the long - term, the port may gradually accumulate inventory, but the current inventory is not high, and the valuation may be slowly compressed. Attention should be paid to the cost support of coal - based production [1]. - For polyester staple fiber, the device start - up rate has increased, production and sales have improved, and inventory has decreased. In the future, the speed of increasing the load at the yarn end may slow down, but the start - up rate remains high due to good spot benefits, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate [1]. - For natural rubber, the national explicit inventory is stable, and the price of Thai cup rubber is stable. The strategy is to wait and see [1]. - For styrene and its related products, the prices and production profits of relevant products have changed, and the start - up rates of some products such as EPS and ABS also show certain trends [1]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs PTA - Device Changes: Hengli Huizhou's 5 million - ton device reduced load, Fuhai Chuang's 4.5 million - ton device restarted, and Ineos' 1.25 million - ton device stopped [1]. - Market Situation: Near - term TA maintenance was implemented, the start - up rate decreased slightly, polyester load was basically stable, inventory increased slightly, the basis weakened, and spot processing fees were slightly repaired. PX domestic start - up rate decreased, overseas devices operated stably, PXN decreased month - on - month, disproportionation and isomerization benefits were basically stable, and the aromatics price difference between the US and Asia widened [1]. MEG - Device Changes: Xinjiang Tianye's 600,000 - ton device stopped again [1]. - Market Situation: Near - term domestic oil - based EG slightly reduced load, coal - based start - up remained stable, overseas devices had both maintenance and restart. Arrivals remained stable while shipments were dull, and port inventory increased slightly at the beginning of next week. Downstream stocking levels increased, the basis weakened month - on - month, and the benefit ratio decreased [1]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Device Changes: Zhongtai and Xianglu increased their device loads, and the start - up rate increased to 95.4% [1]. - Market Situation: Production and sales improved month - on - month, inventory continued to decrease. At the demand end, the start - up rate of the yarn end remained stable, raw material stocking increased, and finished product inventory decreased month - on - month, but the benefits were weak [1]. Natural Rubber - Price Changes: The prices of various types of natural rubber, such as US - dollar - denominated Thai mixed rubber and Thai standard rubber, showed certain fluctuations, and the price of Thai cup rubber was relatively stable [1]. - Inventory Situation: The national explicit inventory was stable [1]. Styrene and Related Products - Price Changes: The prices of ethylene, pure benzene, styrene and other products changed daily, and the production profits of products such as ABS, EPS, and PS also showed corresponding changes [1]. - Start - up Rate: The start - up rates of EPS, ABS, and PS showed different trends [1].