格林期货早盘提示-20250925

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the energy and chemical industry (specifically bottle chips) is "oscillating bullish" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply of bottle chips decreased slightly this week, downstream market purchases were for rigid restocking, and the market was cautious about the later demand. The export volume of bottle chips decreased month - on - month in August. Crude oil prices rebounded from a low level this week, and the short - term price of bottle chips will oscillate and rebound following the raw material end. The reference range for the main contract is 5700 - 5950 yuan/ton. Short - term long operations are recommended [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - On Wednesday night, the futures price of bottle chips PR2511 rose 42 yuan to 5798 yuan/ton. The open interest of the main contract was 31,700 lots, an increase of 159 lots. The price of water - grade bottle chips in the East China market rose 40 yuan to 5750 yuan/ton, and the price of bottle chips in the South China market rose 30 yuan to 5830 yuan/ton [1] Important Information - In terms of supply, cost, and profit, the domestic polyester bottle chip output was 327,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.28. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of domestic polyester bottle chips was 71.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6. The production cost of polyester bottle chips was 5422 yuan, a decrease of 2.1%. The weekly production gross profit of polyester bottle chips was - 196 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 86 yuan/ton [1] - In August 2025, China's polyester bottle chip exports were 520,700 tons, a decrease of 58,800 tons from the previous month. The cumulative export volume in 2025 was 4.3414 million tons [1] - The continuation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict caused potential supply risks, and the decline in US commercial crude oil inventories led to a rise in international oil prices. The NYMEX crude oil futures contract 11 rose 1.58 dollars/barrel to 64.99 dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 2.49%. The ICE Brent crude oil futures contract 11 rose 1.68 dollars/barrel to 69.31 dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 2.48%. The China INE crude oil futures contract 2511 rose 7.0 to 482.3 yuan/barrel, and rose 7.4 to 489.7 yuan/barrel at night [1] - The OECD released a mid - term economic outlook report on the 23rd, predicting that the global economic growth rate in 2025 will be 3.2%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the forecast in June this year. The global economic growth rate will slow down to 2.9% in 2026, the same as the June forecast [1] Market Logic - This week, the supply of bottle chips decreased slightly, downstream market purchases were for rigid restocking, and the market was cautious about the later demand. The export volume of bottle chips decreased month - on - month in August. Crude oil prices rebounded from a low level this week, and the short - term price of bottle chips will oscillate and rebound following the raw material end. The reference range for the main contract is 5700 - 5950 yuan/ton [1] Trading Strategy - Short - term long operations are recommended [1]