大越期货天胶早报-20250925

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the natural rubber industry [1][4][6] 2. Core View - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot market is strong, and domestic inventories are starting to decrease. The tire operating rate is at a high level. The market has support below, and it is advisable to buy on dips [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Hints - The fundamentals of natural rubber are neutral, with increasing supply, strong spot prices, decreasing domestic inventories, and high tire operating rates. The basis is -820, which is bearish. The inventory shows a mixed trend, the market is below the 20 - day line, the main position is net short with a reduction in short positions, and the expectation is to buy on dips [4] 3.2 Fundamental Data - Supply: Supply is increasing [4][6] - Spot Price: The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) rose on September 24th, and the US dollar quote in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is available. The spot price is resistant to decline [8][6] - Inventory: The exchange inventory has recently decreased, and the Qingdao area inventory has decreased week - on - week but increased year - on - year. The inventory in Qingdao area has changed slightly recently [14][17][4] - Downstream Consumption: Downstream consumption is high, with seasonal rebounds in automobile production and sales and a record high in tire production. Tire industry exports are also rebounding [23][26][29] 3.3 Basis - The basis strengthened on September 24th, with the spot price at 14800 and the basis at - 820, which is bearish [4][35] 3.4 Multi - empty Factors - Likely to Rise: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6] - Likely to Fall: Increasing supply, bearish domestic economic indicators, and trade frictions [6]