大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250925

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. For LLDPE, the plastic main - contract's disk is weakly volatile, with the Fed's interest - rate cut implemented, recent oil price fluctuations, the agricultural film demand entering the peak season but still weaker than in previous years, and the industrial inventory being moderately high. For PP, the main - contract's disk is also weakly volatile, with the Fed's interest - rate cut, recent oil price fluctuations, stable downstream demand for pipes and plastic weaving, and moderately high industrial inventory [4][7]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In August, the official PMI was 49.4, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating improved manufacturing sentiment. China's export volume in August was $321.81 billion, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%, but a decline from July. The Fed's interest - rate cut was implemented, and the recent oil price is volatile. The agricultural film is gradually entering the peak season, and the packaging film is mainly for rigid demand. Downstream production has increased, but overall demand is still weaker than in previous years. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7120 (-30), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is - 22, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.3%, which is neutral [4]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 509,000 tons (-42,000), which is neutral [4]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is long, with a reduction in long positions, which is bullish [4]. - Likely Factors: Bullish factors include geopolitical unrest providing cost support and demand gradually entering the peak season; bearish factors are that the year - on - year demand is still weak [5]. PP Overview - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE, in August, manufacturing sentiment improved, China's export volume increased year - on - year but declined from July, the Fed's interest - rate cut was implemented, and the oil price is volatile. Downstream demand is gradually turning to the peak season, and the demand for pipes and plastic weaving is stable. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6750 (-30), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [7]. - Basis: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 127, with a premium - discount ratio of - 1.8%, which is bearish [7]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 520,000 tons (-30,000), which is neutral [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [7]. - Main Position: The net position of the PP main contract is short, with an increase in short positions, which is bearish [7]. - Likely Factors: Bullish factors are geopolitical unrest providing cost support and demand gradually entering the peak season; bearish factors are that the year - on - year demand is still weak [8]. Supply - Demand Balance Tables - Polyethylene: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have shown different trends. For example, the production capacity increased from 1869.5 in 2018 to 3584.5 in 2024, with a production - capacity growth rate ranging from 5.1% - 20.5%. The import dependence decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 32.9% in 2024 [15]. - Polypropylene: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also changed. The production capacity increased from 2245.5 in 2018 to 4418.5 in 2024, with a production - capacity growth rate ranging from 8.4% - 15.5%. The import dependence decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 9.5% in 2024 [17]. Market Data - LLDPE: The spot price of delivery products is 7120 (-30), the price of the 01 contract is 7142 (37), the basis is - 22 (-67), the comprehensive PE factory inventory is 509,000 tons (-42,000), and the social PE inventory is 535,000 tons (-12,000) [10]. - PP: The spot price of delivery products is 6750 (-30), the price of the 01 contract is 6877 (35), the basis is - 127 (-65), the comprehensive PP factory inventory is 520,000 tons (-30,000), and the social PP inventory is 286,000 tons (3,000) [10].