原油成品油早报-20250925

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - This week, oil prices fluctuated at high levels, with fundamental factors and geopolitical sanctions risks diverging. The US President Trump called on European countries to "stop buying" Russian oil again over the weekend. Iran suspended cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency due to the sanctions pushed by the UK, France, and Germany. The EU's sanctions against Russia target the shadow fleet, Russian banks, and Russian oil buyers. Affected by drone attacks, Russia's refined oil exports dropped significantly, while its net crude oil exports remained high. Iran's crude oil exports did not decline. Fundamentally, global oil inventories decreased slightly, with the absolute level similar to that in 2019, the highest in the past five years. In September's preliminary data, OPEC's net crude oil exports rebounded sharply. The US EIA commercial crude oil inventory decreased, gasoline inventory decreased, and diesel inventory increased significantly. Global refinery profits were divided, with US refinery profits rebounding, domestic refinery overall operations increasing, and European and American refinery operations decreasing. Under the baseline scenario, there will be a surplus of over 2 million barrels per day in the crude oil market in the fourth quarter, and an expected surplus of 1.8 - 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026. Institutions estimate that refinery maintenance in October will exceed previous levels, and the fundamental situation will turn to the off - season. The medium - term surplus pattern remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the impact of recent US sanctions on Russia and Iran. It is expected that the absolute price center in the fourth quarter will fall back to $55 - 60 per barrel [5] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily News - Goldman Sachs believes that it is "unlikely" for the EU to comprehensively ban the import of Russian oil because some member states such as Hungary and Slovakia are highly dependent on Russian oil supplies and "lack the motivation to support this measure." Even if implemented, the impact on the global supply - demand balance will be limited as it will only redistribute oil flows rather than reduce global oil supply [3] - Trump promised Arab leaders not to allow Israel to annex the West Bank. About 700,000 Palestinians have evacuated from Gaza City to southern Gaza. Israel's southern city of Eilat was attacked by drones, and the Houthi armed forces confirmed the attack. The US Middle East envoy introduced Trump's 21 - point peace plan for the Middle East and Gaza and expected a breakthrough in the Gaza issue in the coming days [4] - A Russian refinery suspended oil processing after a drone attack on September 20. EU officials proposed to impose tariffs on Russian oil to bypass the opposition of Hungary and Slovakia. The measure is a trade measure, not a sanctions package, so it does not require full consensus to pass [4] 2. Regional Fundamentals - The EIA report shows that in the week of September 12, the US commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 5.692 million barrels per day, a decrease of 579,000 barrels per day compared with the previous week. From September 12 to 18, the operating rate of major refineries fluctuated, and the operating rate of Shandong local refineries increased. Domestic production of gasoline and diesel increased, and inventories of both also increased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries strengthened fluctuantly, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries decreased month - on - month [5] - In the week of September 12, the US crude oil exports increased by 2.532 million barrels per day to 5.277 million barrels per day, domestic crude oil production decreased by 13,000 barrels to 13.482 million barrels per day, commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 9.285 million barrels to 415 million barrels (a decrease of 2.19%), the four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.671 million barrels per day, a 1.69% increase compared with the same period last year, and the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 504,000 barrels to 405.7 million barrels (an increase of 0.12%) [12] 3. Weekly Viewpoints - This week, oil prices fluctuated at high levels. The impact of geopolitical sanctions and fundamental factors diverged. In the medium - term, the surplus pattern remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the impact of US sanctions on Russia and Iran. It is expected that the absolute price center in the fourth quarter will fall back to $55 - 60 per barrel [5]