广发期货日评-20250925

Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - After the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, the market quickly digested the expectation and turned to a volatile state. With the long - holiday approaching, the activity of the capital market decreased, and short - term style switching and partial pull - back retreats in the stock index market are expected. [2] - Without incremental negative news, the high - end range of the 10 - year Treasury yield is expected to be 1.8 - 1.83%. In the absence of strong positive factors, the short - term downward movement of the interest rate is limited, with resistance around 1.75%. [2] - Gold maintains high - level volatility, and its volatility may rise again, but there are large risks of fluctuations as derivative contracts expire at the end of the month. Silver has high upward elasticity driven by突发事件 but the sentiment fades quickly. [2] - The shipping index of container transportation (European line) shows a volatile trend. Steel prices continue to fluctuate, supported by steel exports. Iron ore prices are strong due to reduced shipments, increased molten iron production, and restocking demand. [2] - Coal prices at production areas are stable with a slight upward trend, and the futures prices of coking coal and coke are volatile. The second round of price cuts for coke has been implemented, and some coke enterprises have started to propose price increases. [2] - Supply concerns in the copper market have increased due to disturbances at the Grasberg mine, leading to a rapid rise in copper prices. The cost of alumina provides support, and the inventory of aluminum ingots has started to decline. [2] - Geopolitical risks have increased the risk premium of crude oil, and EIA inventory drawdowns have strengthened short - term support for oil prices. The supply - demand pattern of urea remains loose, and the supply - demand outlook for PX is positive but affected by strong cost factors. [2] - New device commissioning expectations and a weak terminal market have put pressure on the upside of ethylene glycol. The market for agricultural products has entered a stage of stop - falling adjustment, and the supply of new cotton is increasing. [2] - The glass market has been strongly driven by news, and rubber prices are strongly volatile in the short term due to typhoon weather. The market sentiment of industrial silicon has improved, and the price of polysilicon has rebounded. [2] Summary by Categories Financial - Stock Index: After the Fed's interest - rate cut, the stock index shows a full - scale rebound with a hot tech sector. It is recommended to sell put options on MO2511 with an exercise price around 6600 when the index pulls back to collect premiums. [2] - Treasury Bonds: Tight capital and a strong stock market have suppressed the bond market. It is recommended to use range - trading strategies for single - side operations and participate in basis narrowing strategies for the TL contract. [2] - Precious Metals: Gold maintains high - level volatility, and it is recommended to buy on dips or use out - of - the - money call options. For silver above $41, it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options. [2] Black - Steel: Steel exports support the black market valuation, and steel prices continue to fluctuate. It is recommended to short - sell the spread between January contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coils, buy iron ore 2601 on dips (reference range: 780 - 850), and go long on coking coal 2601 (reference range: 1150 - 1300) and coke 2601 (reference range: 1650 - 1800). [2] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Due to supply concerns, copper prices have risen rapidly. It is recommended to hold long positions, with the main contract focusing on the support level of 81000 - 81500. [2] - Aluminum and Its Alloys: The cost of alumina provides support, the inventory of aluminum ingots has started to decline, and the pre - holiday restocking demand supports the price of aluminum alloys. [2] - Other Non - ferrous Metals: Zinc shows inventory drawdowns in the peak season, tin imports remain low in August, nickel shows a volatile upward trend, and stainless steel shows a slight upward movement. [2] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Geopolitical risks and inventory drawdowns support oil prices. It is recommended to use single - side band - trading strategies, with WTI in the range of [60, 66], Brent in [64, 69], and SC in [471, 502]. [2] - Other Chemicals: For various chemicals such as urea, PX, and ethylene glycol, different trading strategies are recommended based on their supply - demand situations and price trends. [2] Agricultural Products - Different agricultural products such as grains, oils, sugar, cotton, and eggs have different price trends and corresponding trading suggestions based on their supply - demand fundamentals. [2] Special and New Energy Commodities - Glass and rubber are affected by news and weather respectively, and industrial silicon and polysilicon have price rebounds due to improved market sentiment. The price of lithium carbonate is affected by news and shows a weakening trend in a tight - balance fundamental situation. [2]