建信期货原油日报-20250925

Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: September 25, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: WTI opened at $62.33, closed at $63.65, with a high of $63.89, a low of $61.85, a gain of 2.2%, and a trading volume of 25.08 million lots; Brent opened at $65.99, closed at $67.17, with a high of $67.42, a low of $65.49, a gain of 1.82%, and a trading volume of 34.44 million lots; SC opened at 479.2 yuan/barrel, closed at 482.3 yuan/barrel, with a high of 485.3 yuan/barrel, a low of 478.5 yuan/barrel, a gain of 1.47%, and a trading volume of 9.07 million lots [6] - Reasons for Rebound: API data showed a decrease of 3.82 million barrels in US crude oil inventories and a decrease of 1.046 million barrels in gasoline inventories in the week ending September 19, and Russia considered banning diesel exports [6] - Market Analysis: US crude oil exports increased significantly, leading to a large reduction in inventories, but weekly exports fluctuated greatly; refinery crude inputs began to decline, and refineries will enter the maintenance season, with a phased decline in demand; distillate inventories have been increasing since July, with a faster growth rate than in previous years, and diesel consumption is weak; EIA and IEA raised global crude oil supply expectations in their monthly reports, and the expected inventory accumulation rate has accelerated [7] - Operation Suggestions: Adopt a short - selling strategy and short on rallies [7] Group 3: Industry News - Iraq: The agreement to resume Kurdish oil supply is in its final stage [8] - Trump: If Russia is unwilling to reach an agreement, impose tariffs, and Europe must stop buying Russian oil [8] - Russia: May extend the gasoline export ban and is discussing the possibility of a diesel export ban [8] - Chevron: Its oil exports in Venezuela have been halved due to new regulations restricting cash payments [8] - Kremlin: Trump is trying to force the world to buy US oil and gas at a higher price [8] Group 4: Data Overview - Data Sources: Bloomberg, EIA, and Wind [11][12][16] - Data Charts: Include charts on US crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, global high - frequency crude oil inventory, EIA crude oil inventory, US gasoline consumption, and US diesel consumption [12][13][21]