建信期货多晶硅日报-20250925

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of the main contract of polysilicon fluctuated. The closing price of PS2511 was 51,380 yuan/ton, up 2.41%, with a trading volume of 242,016 lots and an open interest of 111,187 lots, a net decrease of 4,904 lots. The closing price of PS2601 was 53,425 yuan/ton, up 2.27%, with a trading volume of 41,433 lots and an open interest of 33,020 lots, a net increase of 246 lots [4]. - Before the holiday, the market entered a policy vacuum period. As the long - holiday approached, the risk preference of funds decreased. However, after the futures price tested the rigid support of the spot price at the lower end of the range and then rebounded, the oscillation pattern between 48,000 - 55,000 remained unchanged. The transaction price range of n - type re -投料 was 51,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan/ton. The improvement of the fundamentals after the long - holiday requires greater policy support. The planned monthly output of 100,000 tons is not enough to drive the industry chain to fully destock, and policy drive is more important [4]. - With the strict implementation of the new energy - consumption standard, the supply - demand pattern of polysilicon will be substantially improved. After the adjustment of the existing production - capacity structure, the effective domestic polysilicon production capacity will drop to about 2.4 million tons/year, a decrease of 16.4% compared with the end of 2024 and a decrease of 31.4% compared with the installed production capacity [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - Market performance: The price of the main contract of polysilicon fluctuated. PS2511 closed at 51,380 yuan/ton, up 2.41%, with a trading volume of 242,016 lots and an open interest of 111,187 lots, a net decrease of 4,904 lots. PS2601 closed at 53,425 yuan/ton, up 2.27%, with a trading volume of 41,433 lots and an open interest of 33,020 lots, a net increase of 246 lots [4]. - Future outlook: Before the holiday, it entered a policy vacuum period. As the long - holiday approached, the risk preference of funds decreased. The futures price tested the rigid support of the spot price at the lower end of the range and then rebounded. The oscillation pattern between 48,000 - 55,000 remained unchanged. The transaction price range of n - type re -投料 was 51,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan/ton. The improvement of the fundamentals after the long - holiday requires greater policy support. The planned monthly output of 100,000 tons is not enough to drive the industry chain to fully destock, and policy drive is more important [4]. 3.2 Market News - On September 24, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 7,850 lots, a decrease of 20 lots compared with the previous trading day [5]. - According to the Notice on Improving the Price Mechanism to Promote the Proximity Consumption of New - energy Power Generation, the power source of proximity - consumption projects should be connected to the user side at the demarcation point between the user and the public - power grid property. The proportion of the annual self - generated electricity of new energy to the total available generated electricity should be no less than 60%, and the proportion to the total electricity consumption should be no less than 30%, and no less than 35% for new projects starting from 2030. The project should have the condition of sub - meter measurement, and the power - grid enterprise should install measurement devices at the power - generation, plant - power - consumption, grid - connection, self - use, and energy - storage junctions to accurately measure the electricity data of each link [5]. - The number of domestic polysilicon producers in operation remained at 10, with one enterprise's maintenance expected to end at the end of September and resume normal production in early October [5]. - On September 16, the Standardization Administration of China issued the draft for comments on three mandatory national standards, including the Energy - Consumption Quotas per Unit Product of Polysilicon and Germanium. After the formal implementation of this standard, enterprises whose energy consumption per unit product of polysilicon fails to meet the benchmark value requirement (6.4 kgce/kg) will be required to make rectifications within a time limit. Enterprises that fail to make rectifications within the time limit or fail to meet the access value (5.5 kgce/kg) after rectification will be shut down. After the adjustment of the existing production - capacity structure, the effective domestic polysilicon production capacity will drop to about 2.4 million tons/year, a decrease of 16.4% compared with the end of 2024 and a decrease of 31.4% compared with the installed production capacity [5].