PTA、MEG早报-20250925

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views of the Report - For PTA, the futures盘面 followed the cost side to open low and move low. PTA's own device restarted and reduced its load in parallel, currently having limited impact on the market. The spot basis was running weakly. It is expected that the short - term PTA spot price will fluctuate mainly affected by the cost side. Attention should be paid to the changes in upstream and downstream devices and polyester production and sales [5]. - For MEG, on Wednesday, the price center of ethylene glycol was widely adjusted, and the basis weakened significantly. Before the holiday, traders mainly sold their goods. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation for ethylene glycol starting from the fourth quarter, and the disk performance is under pressure. It is expected that the short - term price center of ethylene glycol will be adjusted at a low level, and subsequent attention should be paid to device and production and sales changes [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review - Not provided 2. Daily Tips PTA - Fundamentals: Overnight crude oil rebounded again. Today, PTA futures fluctuated and rose following the cost side. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis strengthened slightly. Individual polyester factories replenished their stocks. September goods were traded at a discount of 70 - 75 to the 01 contract, with individual slightly lower at around 01 - 80, and the price negotiation range was around 4490 - 4555. Mid - October goods were traded at around 01 - 55 - 57, with individual slightly lower. Late - October goods were traded at 01 - 50. Today's mainstream spot basis was 01 - 73, rated as neutral [6]. - Basis: The spot price was 4520, the basis of the 01 contract was - 106, and the disk was at a premium, rated as bearish [6]. - Inventory: PTA factory inventory was 3.8 days, a decrease of 0.04 days compared to the previous period, rated as bullish [6]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average, rated as bearish [6]. - Main Position: Net short, with short positions decreasing, rated as bearish [6]. MEG - Fundamentals: On Wednesday, the price center of ethylene glycol was widely adjusted, and the basis weakened significantly. Although the ethylene glycol disk was slightly repaired during the day, the intention to hold goods in the market was weak. Before the holiday, traders mainly sold their goods. In the afternoon, the basis of this week's spot was traded at a low level at a premium of 64 - 65 yuan/ton to the 01 contract, and the basis of far - month futures was relatively stable. In terms of US dollars, the external price center of ethylene glycol rose slightly. Recent cargoes were negotiated at around 506 - 510 US dollars/ton, and recent cargoes were traded at around 506 - 509 US dollars/ton during the day, with the trading being relatively stalemate, and an appropriate amount of financing merchants participated in the inquiry. Rated as neutral [7]. - Basis: The spot price was 4305, the basis of the 01 contract was 71, and the disk was at a discount, rated as bullish [8]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China was 38.17 tons, an increase of 0.93 tons compared to the previous period, rated as bearish [8]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average, rated as bearish [8]. - Main Position: The main position was net short, with short positions decreasing, rated as bearish [7]. 3. Today's Focus - Not provided 4. Fundamental Data PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production capacity, load, output, PTA consumption, total demand, and ending inventory all showed different degrees of fluctuations. For example, in 2024, PTA production capacity increased from 8062 in January to 8812 in December. In 2025, it continued to change, reaching 9472 in December [13]. Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, ethylene glycol production, import, total supply, polyester production capacity, load, output, ethylene glycol consumption, total consumption, port inventory, and inventory changes also showed different trends. For example, in 2024, ethylene glycol production capacity utilization and total supply changed month - by - month, and in 2025, it continued to show dynamic changes [14]. Other Data Analysis - Price - related: Data on bottle - chip spot prices, production margins, capacity utilization, inventory, PTA basis, MEG basis, and various price spreads (such as TA1 - 5, TA5 - 9, TA9 - 1, EG1 - 5, EG5 - 9, EG9 - 1, TA - EG spot spread, etc.) from 2019 - 2025 were presented, which can help analyze market trends and price relationships [16][26][34]. - Inventory - related: Data on PTA factory inventory, MEG port inventory, PET slice inventory, and various polyester product inventories in different regions and time periods were provided, which is helpful for understanding the inventory situation in the industry [43][45]. - Production and Operation - related: Data on the start - up rates of polyester upstream (such as PTA, p - xylene, ethylene glycol) and downstream (such as polyester factories, Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms) were given, which can be used to analyze the production and operation status of the industry [54][58]. - Profit - related: Data on the production margins of PTA, MEG (in different production methods), and various polyester fibers were presented, which can help evaluate the profitability of different segments in the industry [62][64].