Yongan Futures(SH:600927) Yong An Qi Huo·2025-09-25 02:00Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - On Wednesday, the market rose significantly driven by the news of MSK's price increase. The 10 - 12 month spread was -582.1 (-58.7), and the 02 - 04 month spread was 327.1 (+26.1). The 10 - contract basis was around 95 points [1][18]. - In early October, the goods receipt was still weak. After the market closed, MSK raised the post - holiday weekly仓位 to $1800 (+$400). However, the purpose of this price increase was to stabilize prices and encourage downstream shippers to stock up before the holiday, not a real price increase, and the final implementation was expected to be poor. The 10 - contract could be shorted depending on the subsequent upward trend [1][18]. - After the holiday, there were multiple upward drivers, including multiple price - increase announcement nodes and high operational space for shipping companies to reduce speed and suspend voyages. The period from December to January was a long - term favorable period [1][18]. - From a valuation perspective, the valuation of the 12 - contract was not low, but funds might be more concentrated on this contract, so a long - allocation strategy was recommended in the short term. The cost - performance of the 02 - contract might be higher than that of the 12 - contract because the Spring Festival in 2026 was relatively late (February 17, 2026), and the settlement price of the 02 - contract might be high. The 04 - contract was currently in a low - valuation range and was more suitable for short - allocation as an off - season contract, but its low liquidity might make it easily disturbed [1][18]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contracts - EC2510: Yesterday's closing price was 1114.4, with a change of 1.31%, yesterday's trading volume was 40940, and the position was 22606 with a change of -568 [1][18]. - EC2512: Yesterday's closing price was 1696.5, with a change of 4.50%, yesterday's trading volume was 26219, and the position was 488 [1][18]. - EC2602: Yesterday's closing price was 1588.1, with a change of 3.42%, yesterday's trading volume was 147.9, and the position was 8043 with a change of 442 [1][18]. - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 1261.0, with a change of 2.14%, yesterday's trading volume was 179.2, and the position was 8931 with a change of 77 [1][18]. - EC2606: Yesterday's closing price was 1445.3, with a change of 1.69%, yesterday's trading volume was -6, and the position was 105 [1][18]. Spread between Futures Contracts - FC2510 - 2512: The spread was -582.1, with a previous value of -523.4 and a change of -58.7 [1][18]. - EC2512 - 2602: The spread was 108.4, with a previous value of 87.8 [1][18]. Freight Rate Indexes - SCFIS: Updated weekly. As of September 15, 2025, the index was 1566.46, the previous value was 1440.24, and the value two periods ago was 1773.60, with a current - period decline of 8.06% and a next - period decline of 11.68% [1][18]. - SCFI (European Line): Updated every Friday. As of September 19, 2025, the index was 1052, the previous value was 1154, and the value two periods ago was 1315, with a current - period decline of 8.84% and a next - period decline of 12.24% [1][18]. - CCFI: Updated every Friday. As of September 19, 2025, the index was 1470.97, the previous value was 1638.77, and the value two periods ago was 1537.28, with a current - period decline of 4.31% and a next - period decline of 6.19% [1][18]. - NCFI: Updated every Friday. As of September 19, 2025, the index was 673.61, the previous value was 729.42, and the value two periods ago was 855.93, with a current - period decline of 7.65% and a next - period decline of 14.78% [1][18]. Recent European Line Quotations - Week 39: The average quotation was $1600 (equivalent to 1150 points on the futures market). Among them, MSK quoted $1500 (later raised to $1570), the PA alliance quoted between $1550 - $1600, and the OA alliance quoted between $1600 - $1720 [1][18]. - Week 40 - 41: There were space allocations in these two weeks (because most of the cargo volume in Week 41 was handled through skipping voyages during the holiday). The average quotation was $1450 (equivalent to 1020 points on the futures market). Among them, MSK quoted $1400, the PA alliance quoted between $1300 - $1500 (YML's $1300 was the lowest price of the year), and the OA alliance quoted between $1400 - $1600 [1][18]. - Week 42: MSK opened with a quotation of $1800 (a month - on - month increase of $400), CMA opened with a quotation of $2520 (an increase of $900), and HPL opened with a quotation of $2035 (an increase of $600) [1][18].