《有色》日报-20250925

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - Grasberg mine accident intensifies concerns about tight global copper mine supply, and copper prices are expected to benefit from potential Fed rate cuts. In the medium - long term, supply - demand contradictions support copper prices, with the short - term price rising due to mine disturbances. The main focus is on the 81000 - 81500 support level [2]. Aluminum - The alumina market is in a "high supply, high inventory, weak demand" pattern, with short - term prices expected to oscillate between 2850 - 3150 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices are expected to show high - level oscillations after a decline, with the main contract in the 20600 - 21000 yuan/ton range [5]. Aluminum Alloy - Cast aluminum alloy futures prices oscillate with aluminum prices. Cost rigidity and pre - holiday stocking support prices, but weak demand recovery and inventory accumulation restrict price increases. Short - term ADC12 prices are expected to maintain high - level oscillations in the 20200 - 20600 yuan/ton range [7]. Zinc - Due to the expectation of loose supply, the upside space of Shanghai zinc is limited. Short - term prices may rise due to macro - drivers, but the fundamentals provide limited elasticity for continuous upward movement. The main reference range is 21500 - 22500 [10]. Tin - Supply is tight, providing support for tin prices, which continue to oscillate at high levels in the 265000 - 285000 range. The focus is on the supply recovery situation in Myanmar [12]. Nickel - The macro - environment is stable, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not obvious, but the medium - term supply is expected to be loose, restricting the upside space of prices. The main reference range is 119000 - 124000 [14]. Stainless Steel - Raw material prices are firm, providing cost support, but the peak - season demand fails to meet expectations. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate and adjust, with the main operating range at 12800 - 13200 [16][17]. Lithium Carbonate - The supply - demand relationship is in a tight balance. Strong peak - season demand supports prices, and short - term prices are expected to oscillate and sort out, with the main price center in the 70000 - 75000 range [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - Price and Basis: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 80045 yuan/ton, up 0.04% from the previous day; the refined - scrap price difference is 1879 yuan/ton, up 4.45% [2]. - Fundamental Data: In August, electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, down 0.24% month - on - month; imports were 26.43 million tons, down 10.99% month - on - month [2]. Aluminum - Price and Spread: SMM A00 aluminum price is 20680 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; alumina prices in various regions show different degrees of decline [5]. - Fundamental Data: In August, alumina production was 773.82 million tons, up 1.15% month - on - month; electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, up 0.30% month - on - month [5]. Aluminum Alloy - Price and Spread: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 20850 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; various regions' price differences show different degrees of decline [7]. - Fundamental Data: In August, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, down 1.60% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 27.10 million tons, up 1.88% month - on - month [7]. Zinc - Price and Spread: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 21820 yuan/ton, down 0.27% from the previous day; the import profit and loss is - 3230 yuan/ton [10]. - Fundamental Data: In August, refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, up 3.88% month - on - month; imports were 2.57 million tons, up 43.30% month - on - month [10]. Tin - Price and Spread: SMM 1 tin price is 271400 yuan/ton, up 0.26% from the previous day; the import profit and loss is - 13025.42 yuan/ton [12]. - Fundamental Data: In July, tin ore imports were 10278 tons, down 13.71% month - on - month; SMM refined tin production was 15940 tons, up 15.42% month - on - month [12]. Nickel - Price and Spread: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 122450 yuan/ton, up 0.41% from the previous day; the futures import profit and loss is - 1374 yuan/ton [14]. - Fundamental Data: China's refined nickel production in August was 32200 tons, up 1.26% month - on - month; imports were 17536 tons, down 8.46% month - on - month [14]. Stainless Steel - Price and Spread: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 13100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the futures - spot price difference is 375 yuan/ton [16]. - Fundamental Data: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 companies) in August was 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; imports were 11.72 million tons, up 60.48% month - on - month [16]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Spread: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 73850 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of lithium spodumene concentrate CIF average is 856 dollars/ton, down 0.47% [18]. - Fundamental Data: In August, lithium carbonate production was 85240 tons, up 4.55% month - on - month; demand was 104023 tons, up 8.25% month - on - month [18].