建信期货鸡蛋日报-20250925

Group 1: Report Basic Information - Report industry: Eggs [1] - Report date: September 25, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Egg 2510 contract: The previous settlement price was 2962, the opening price was 2949, the highest price was 2979, the lowest price was 2934, the closing price was 2957, down 5 or -0.17%. The trading volume was 35,165, the open interest was 68,611, with a decrease of 6401 [7] - Egg 2511 contract: The previous settlement price was 3070, the opening price was 3065, the highest price was 3080, the lowest price was 3037, the closing price was 3056, down 14 or -0.46%. The trading volume was 337,413, the open interest was 362,521, with a decrease of 8563 [7] - Egg 2512 contract: The previous settlement price was 3192, the opening price was 3190, the highest price was 3201, the lowest price was 3168, the closing price was 3179, down 13 or -0.41%. The trading volume was 74,730, the open interest was 153,648, with an increase of 9726 [7] - National egg prices were stable. The average price in major producing areas was 3.65 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the average price in major consuming areas was 3.87 yuan/jin, up 0.03 yuan/jin from the previous day [7] Core Viewpoint - After the weakest summer peak season in recent years, the spot market has gradually stabilized and rebounded. The supply pressure has been alleviated due to accelerated elimination from August to September, and there is still demand support from the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day stocking expectations in September. However, the spot peak - season rise is expected to be near the end. Futures prices of contracts in the fourth quarter dropped significantly earlier and then rose sharply last Monday, mainly due to weak market sentiment before. The supply pressure is difficult to ease in the short term, and the market may fluctuate after price increases. If there are profits from long positions, it is advisable to take profits at high prices. The near - month 10 contract is likely to enter the delivery month with a high discount, and the upside space of this rebound should not be overestimated. Future operations need to continuously monitor elimination and replenishment data, and the fundamental inflection point may appear in the later stage of the fourth quarter at the earliest. There may be adjustment space in the medium - and short - term after the spot market encounters resistance [8] Group 3: Industry News - The inventory of laying hens in production is on an upward trend. As of the end of August, the monthly inventory of laying hens in production nationwide was about 1.365 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 0.7%, and a year - on - year increase of 6.0% compared with 1.288 billion in the same period last year [9] - In August, the monthly output of layer chicks from sample enterprises was about 39.81 million, which was less than 39.98 million in July and significantly less than 43.95 million in the same period in 2024. It is a medium - level single - month replenishment volume in the past 8 years [9] - From the weekly data, as of September 18, the national elimination volume of laying hens in the previous three weeks was 17.61 million, 17.48 million, and 17.89 million respectively. The elimination volume has gradually increased since August, with an increase rate higher than the seasonal average, and the current absolute value is slightly higher than the average of the previous three years. As of September 18, the average age of eliminated hens was 497 days, 2 days later than last week and 9 days earlier than last month [10] Group 4: Data Overview - The data sources include Wind, Zhuochuang Information, and Trading Famen, and the data includes charts such as the monthly inventory of laying hens in production in China, layer farming profit, the average price of eggs in major producing areas, the basis of the egg 10 contract, and the price difference between the egg 12 - 02 contracts [13][17]