大越期货PVC期货早报-20250925

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of PVC decreased this week, and the production schedule is expected to increase next week. The overall inventory is at a high level, and the current demand may remain sluggish. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4888 - 4950. [10] - The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. [15] - The positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. The negative factors include the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and external demand. [14] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Positive factors: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Negative factors: Rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and external demand. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand. [14][15] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Supply - In August 2025, PVC production was 2.07334 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.43%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 76.96%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 328,605 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.14%, and the production of ethylene enterprises was 132,310 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.16%. The supply pressure decreased this week, and the number of expected maintenance next week is expected to decrease, with a slight increase in the production schedule. [7] 3.2.2 Demand - The overall downstream operating rate was 49.26%, a month - on - month increase of 0.76 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream profiles was 39.43%, a month - on - month increase of 0.21 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream pipes was 39.13%, a month - on - month increase of 0.52 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream films was 76.92%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream paste resin was 72.76%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.39 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and the domestic PVC export price is competitive. The current demand may remain sluggish. [7] 3.2.3 Cost - The profit of calcium carbide method was - 657.2513 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 30.80% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 652.2011 yuan/ton, with the loss decreasing by 2.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2339.25 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average. The production schedule may be under pressure. [8] 3.2.4 Basis - On September 24, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4790 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 129 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. It is bearish. [9] 3.2.5 Inventory - The in - factory inventory was 306,239 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20%. The calcium carbide factory inventory was 241,039 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.30%. The ethylene factory inventory was 65,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.81%. The social inventory was 534,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.56%. The inventory days of production enterprises in stock were 5.15 days, a month - on - month decrease of 0.96%. It is bearish. [9] 3.2.6 Market - MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above MA20. It is neutral. [12] 3.2.7 Main Position - The main position is net short, and the short position decreased. It is bearish. [12] 3.2.8 Expectation - The cost of calcium carbide method weakened, and the cost of ethylene method strengthened, with the overall cost weakening. The supply pressure decreased this week, and the production schedule is expected to increase next week. The overall inventory is at a high level, and the current demand may remain sluggish. Continuously monitor macro - policies and export dynamics. [10]