甲醇聚烯烃早报-20250925

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Methanol: The trading logic is the pressure transfer from ports to the inland. The inland has seasonal stocking demand and new device stocking increment from Lianhong, but port backflow will impact the inland. Currently, the price is benchmarked to the inland price. Xingxing is expected to start operation in early September, but inventory is still accumulating. Backflow can relieve port pressure but will affect inland valuation. With average valuation, inventory, and weak drivers, it's necessary to wait before bottom - fishing [2]. - Plastic (Polyethylene): The inventory of major producers is neutral year - on - year. Upstream and coal - chemical producers are destocking, while social inventory remains flat. Downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. The overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The import profit is around - 200 with no further increase. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, and other spreads are volatile. LD is weakening. September maintenance is flat month - on - month, and domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotes, as well as new device commissioning in 2025 [6]. - PP: Upstream and mid - stream inventories are decreasing. The basis is - 60, non - standard spreads are neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports are doing well. Non - standard spreads are neutral, and prices in Europe and America are stable. PDH profit is around - 400, propylene is volatile, and powder production is stable.拉丝 production is neutral. Future supply is expected to increase slightly. Downstream orders are average, and raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to grow or PDH devices have more maintenance, supply pressure can be relieved to a neutral level [8]. - PVC: The basis remains at 01 - 270, and the factory - pick - up basis is - 480. Downstream operation is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. Northwest devices have seasonal maintenance in summer, and the load is between the spring maintenance and Q1 high - production levels. In Q4, attention should be paid to production capacity commissioning and export sustainability. Near - end export orders have slightly decreased. Coal sentiment is positive, and the cost of semi - coke is stable. Calcium carbide profit is under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The export counter - offer for caustic soda is FOB380. The PVC comprehensive profit is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, with stable costs, average downstream performance, and neutral macro - environment. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operation [8]. 3. Data Summary Methanol | Date |动力煤期货|江苏现货|华南现货|鲁南折盘面|西南折盘面|河北折盘面|西北折盘面|CFR中国|CFR东南亚|进口利润|主力基差|盘面MTO利润| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/09/18 | 801 | 2267 | 2270 | 2585 | 2545 | 2570 | 2690 | 262 | 326 | - 10 | - 110 | - 1255 | | 2025/09/19 | 801 | 2260 | 2268 | 2580 | 2545 | 2570 | 2685 | 262 | 326 | 6 | - 105 | - 1255 | | 2025/09/22 | 801 | 2257 | 2258 | 2563 | 2545 | 2570 | 2665 | 262 | 326 | - 6 | - 110 | - 1255 | | 2025/09/23 | 801 | 2245 | 2253 | 2560 | 2535 | 2570 | 2680 | 262 | 326 | - 19 | - 110 | - 1255 | | 2025/09/24 | 801 | 2260 | 2265 | 2540 | 2535 | 2570 | 2680 | 262 | 326 | - 19 | - 110 | - 1255 | | Daily Change | 0 | 15 | 12 | - 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | [2] Plastic (Polyethylene) | Date |东北亚乙烯|华北LL|华东LL|华东LD|华东HD|LL美金|LL美湾|进口利润|主力期货|基差|两油库存|仓单| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/09/18 | 850 | 7120 | 7285 | 9540 | 7400 | 840 | 796 | - 97 | 7188 | - 90 | 64 | 12736 | | 2025/09/19 | 845 | 7100 | 7250 | 9530 | 7400 | 840 | 796 | - 66 | 7169 | - 70 | 63 | 12736 | | 2025/09/22 | 845 | 7070 | 7215 | 9530 | 7350 | 840 | 796 | - 97 | 7130 | - 60 | 63 | 12736 | | 2025/09/23 | 845 | 7050 | 7190 | 9515 | 7350 | 840 | 796 | - 97 | 7105 | - 60 | 63 | 12736 | | 2025/09/24 | 845 | 7070 | 7200 | 9515 | 7350 | 840 | 796 | - 97 | 7142 | - 60 | 63 | 12736 | | Daily Change | 0 | 20 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | [6] PP | Date |山东丙烯|东北亚丙烯|华东PP|华北PP|山东粉料|华东共聚|PP美金|PP美湾|出口利润|主力期货|基差|两油库存|仓单| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/09/18 | 6580 | 770 | 6830 | 6838 | 6740 | 6996 | 840 | 925 | - 26 | 6926 | - 140 | 64 | 13676 | | 2025/09/19 | 6580 | 770 | 6795 | 6833 | 6750 | 7052 | 840 | 925 | - 24 | 6914 | - 130 | 63 | 13499 | | 2025/09/22 | 6500 | 765 | 6770 | 6818 | 6750 | 7024 | 840 | 925 | - 23 | 6873 | - 130 | 63 | 13477 | | 2025/09/23 | 6450 | 760 | 6710 | 6790 | 6750 | 6996 | 840 | 925 | - 20 | 6842 | - 130 | 63 | 13413 | | 2025/09/24 | 6450 | 760 | 6740 | 6765 | 6750 | 6996 | 840 | 925 | - 20 | 6877 | - 130 | 63 | 14158 | | Daily Change | 0 | 0 | 30 | - 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 745 | [8] PVC | Date |西北电石|山东烧碱|电石法 - 华东|乙烯法 - 华东|电石法 - 华南|电石法 - 西北|进口美金价（CFR中国）|出口利润|西北综合利润|华北综合利润|基差(高端交割品)| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/09/18 | 2550 | 825 | 4800 | 5500 | 5450 | 4460 | 700 | 336 | 356 | - 244 | - 150 | | 2025/09/19 | 2600 | 817 | 4830 | 5500 | 5450 | 4460 | 700 | 339 | 356 | - 244 | - 150 | | 2025/09/22 | 2600 | 817 | 4810 | 5500 | 5450 | 4460 | 700 | 359 | 356 | - 244 | - 150 | | 2025/09/23 | 2600 | 817 | 4760 | 5500 | 5450 | 4420 | 700 | 358 | 356 | - 244 | - 150 | | 2025/09/24 | 2600 | 817 | 4760 | 5500 | 5450 | 4420 | 700 | 358 | 356 | - 244 | - 150 | | Daily Change | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | [8]