建信期货股指日评-20250925

Report Information - Report Type: Stock Index Daily Review [1] - Date: September 25, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Nie Jiayi, He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin [3] Market Review - On September 24, the Wind All A index opened lower and then oscillated upward. The semiconductor sector was strong, and the brokerage sector drove the index higher in the afternoon. The Wind All A index closed up 1.40%, with nearly 4,500 stocks rising. The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 closed up 1.02%, 0.68%, 1.99%, and 1.70% respectively. The futures of large-cap blue-chip indexes generally underperformed the spot, while those of small and medium-cap indexes outperformed the spot. The IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts closed up 1.03%, 0.51%, 3.12%, and 2.47% respectively [6]. Future Outlook - External markets: The fourth round of China-US talks were held in Spain, discussing trade issues. There are still differences, but the overall trend is towards easing. The Fed cut interest rates, and it is expected to cut another 50BP this year, but Powell's post-meeting remarks were slightly hawkish, suppressing market sentiment [8]. - Domestic situation: Economic data in August showed weakening supply and demand. The economic fundamentals still face pressure, but the "anti-involution" policy has had initial effects, and the prices of upstream resource products have recovered. The semi-annual reports of listed companies showed that revenue and profit growth are still at the bottom, and it remains to be seen if the performance repair in the fourth quarter can be realized [8]. - Liquidity: The margin trading balance has continued to hit new highs. The incremental funds may come from the new liquidity brought by the Fed's interest rate cut and the sustainability of household deposit transfers. There is still room for further growth in new accounts [8]. - Overall: In the long term, the stock index is still optimistic under the concepts of "East rising and West falling" and "technology narrative." In the short term, there is significant pressure at the previous high, and with the National Day holiday approaching, market risk aversion may increase. The market may need further consolidation, and short-term cautious operation and light positions are recommended [9]. Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce and seven other departments issued measures to promote service exports, including 13 specific measures [29]. - Premier Li Qiang attended the high-level meeting on the Global Development Initiative in New York and stated that China will support and promote common development, increase investment in global development, strengthen scientific and technological cooperation, and promote green transformation [29].