《特殊商品》日报-20250925

Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views - Rubber Industry: Supply is affected by rainy seasons and typhoons, and future supply expectations suppress raw material prices. Downstream tire factories' pre - holiday restocking is mostly completed, and inventory reduction has slowed. Demand is lackluster with sub - optimal sales performance. The 01 contract range is 15000 - 16500, and follow - up attention should be paid to the raw material output during the peak season in major producing areas [1]. - Log Industry: Logs are in an oscillatory pattern. With the approaching of the "Golden September and Silver October" season, attention should be paid to whether the shipment volume improves. In the short - term, the market is expected to oscillate within a range, and it is recommended to go long at low prices [3]. - Glass and Soda Ash Industry: Soda ash has a fundamental oversupply problem, and the inventory has shifted to the middle and lower reaches. In the medium - term, demand will continue the previous rigid pattern. It is recommended to hold short positions. Glass prices were driven up by rumors, and the spot market is expected to improve in the short - term, but the mid - stream inventory in some areas is high, and the long - term outlook depends on capacity clearance [4]. - Polysilicon Industry: The supply - side regulation is ineffective, and the industry has over - capacity. Downstream component inventory is high, and prices are unstable. Before the National Day holiday, polysilicon prices will oscillate within the range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton [5]. - Industrial Silicon Industry: From September to October, the supply of industrial silicon increases, and the balance turns loose. The price is expected to oscillate between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the fourth - quarter production reduction rhythm of silicon material enterprises and Sichuan and Yunnan industrial silicon enterprises [6]. Summary by Directory Rubber Industry - Spot Prices and Basis: On September 24, the price of Yunnan Guofu full - latex increased by 100 yuan/ton to 14,800 yuan/ton, and the full - latex basis increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 820 yuan/ton [1]. - Inter - month Spreads: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 55 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 35 yuan/ton to 75 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 20 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton [1]. - Fundamentals: In July, Thailand's rubber production increased by 1.61%, Indonesia's by 12.09%, while India's and China's decreased. In August, domestic tire production increased by 9.10%, and exports decreased by 5.46% [1]. - Inventory Changes: The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.95%, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange's factory - warehouse futures inventory decreased by 3.07% [1]. Log Industry - Futures and Spot Prices: On September 25, the 2511 log contract closed at 803 yuan/cubic meter, down 2 yuan/cubic meter. The spot prices of major benchmark delivery products remained unchanged [3]. - Cost and Import: The import theoretical cost increased slightly, and the RMB - US dollar exchange rate was stable [3]. - Supply and Demand: As of September 19, the total national coniferous log inventory decreased by 100,000 cubic meters. The daily log shipment volume decreased by 3100 cubic meters as of September 12. This week, the number of expected arriving ships from New Zealand increased by 4, and the arrival volume increased by 126,000 cubic meters [3]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - Glass - related Prices and Spreads: On September 26, the prices in North China, Central China, and South China increased slightly, and the prices of the 2505 and 2509 contracts increased by 3.35% and 2.52% respectively [4]. - Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads: The prices in all regions remained unchanged, and the prices of the 2505 and 2509 contracts increased by 2.42% and 1.84% respectively [4]. - Supply and Inventory: Soda ash production and glass melting volume decreased slightly. Glass factory inventory and soda ash factory inventory decreased, while soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased [4]. - Real Estate Data: New construction area increased by 0.09%, construction area decreased by 2.43%, completion area decreased by 0.03%, and sales area decreased by 6.50% [4]. Polysilicon Industry - Spot Prices and Basis: On September 24, the average price of N - type re - feed decreased by 0.28%, and the N - type material basis decreased by 53.14% [5]. - Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads: The main contract price increased by 2.23%, and the spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract increased significantly [5]. - Fundamentals: Weekly polysilicon production decreased by 0.64%, and monthly production increased by 23.31%. Weekly silicon wafer production increased by 0.29%, and monthly production increased by 6.24% [5]. - Inventory Changes: Polysilicon inventory decreased by 6.85%, and silicon wafer inventory increased by 1.93% [5]. Industrial Silicon Industry - Spot Prices and Basis: On September 24, the prices of various types of industrial silicon remained mostly unchanged, and the basis of some types decreased [6]. - Inter - month Spreads: The spreads between some contracts changed slightly [6]. - Fundamentals: Monthly national industrial silicon production increased by 14.01%, and the export volume increased by 3.56%. The production of related industries such as organic silicon DMC and polysilicon increased [6]. - Inventory Changes: The inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 1.07%, and the social inventory increased by 0.74% [6].