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建信期货工业硅日报-20250925
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-09-25 02:25

Group 1: Report General Information - Report date: September 25, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] - Researchers: Li Jie (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil), Ren Junchi (PTA/MEG), Peng Haozhou (Industrial Silicon/Polycrystalline Silicon), Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), Liu Youran (Pulp), Feng Zeren (Glass and Soda Ash) [1][3] Group 2: Market Performance and Outlook Market Performance - Industrial silicon futures prices fluctuated. Si2511 closed at 9020 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 353,767 lots and an open interest of 270,931 lots, a net decrease of 2,765 lots [4] - Spot prices: Sichuan 553 at 9150 yuan/ton, Yunnan 553 at 8850 yuan/ton; Inner Mongolia 421 at 9500 yuan/ton, Xinjiang 421 at 9500 yuan/ton, Sichuan 421 at 9850 yuan/ton [4] Market Outlook - Industrial silicon supply-demand pressure remains high. The output in the fourth week of September increased to 94,700 tons, and the monthly output is expected to reach 420,000 tons. The demand for polysilicon is optimistically estimated at 145,000 tons, organic silicon at 120,000 tons, and exports and alloy demand at 110,000 tons, with a supply-demand gap of 45,000 tons [4] - The market has no inventory reduction drive. The situation of "weak reality + strong policy expectations" makes funds more sensitive to policy drivers. The stable and rising spot prices have stimulated the recent futures prices to fluctuate strongly, but the risk appetite of pre-holiday funds has decreased, and the market will continue to fluctuate widely [4] Group 3: Market News - On September 24, the futures warehouse receipt volume of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 49,925 lots, a net decrease of 38 lots from the previous trading day [5] - The relevant departments are actively promoting industry self-discipline and capacity governance in key industries. In August, the year-on-year decline in ex-factory prices of industries such as coal, steel, new energy vehicles, and photovoltaics narrowed, which is conducive to the return of price operation to a reasonable range [5]