建信期货国债日报-20250925

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: September 25, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Group 2: Market Data - Treasury futures trading data on September 24: All contracts showed price declines with varying degrees of fall and changes in trading volume, open interest, and positions. For example, TL2512 had a closing price of 114.070, a decline of 0.470 and a decrease of 0.41%. [6] Group 3: Market Review and Recommendations - Market conditions: Due to the central bank's net withdrawal of funds and insufficient support, the bond market sentiment was weak, and treasury futures fell across the board. The yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market rose, with larger increases in the medium - and long - term. The 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 yield rose 2.2bp to 1.82%. [8][9] - Funding market: The pressure on the money market increased slightly, with a net withdrawal of funds in the open market. There were 4185 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities, and the central bank conducted 4015 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 170 billion yuan. Short - term interest rates mostly rose, while medium - and long - term funds remained stable. [10] - Conclusion: In August, the national economic activities weakened, with consumption slowing down and the decline in the real estate market expanding again. The necessity for China's monetary policy to follow the Fed's easing in September is low. The policy may focus on expanding fiscal and credit policies and real estate support, which will bring disturbances to the bond market. However, the suppression of the stock market on the bond market may ease. The bond market may still lack a breakthrough, and investors should be patient and wait for better allocation opportunities. Attention should be paid to the central bank's MLF renewal and cross - quarter funds, and the approaching long holiday may trigger risk - aversion sentiment and stabilize the bond market. [11][12] Group 4: Industry News - The central bank announced that the 1 - year and 5 - year LPR remained unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively, in line with market expectations. Some believe that policy rates and LPR may be cut by the end of the year. [13] - Deputy Premier He Lifeng met with a US congressional delegation, expressing the hope to promote the stable, healthy, and sustainable development of Sino - US economic and trade relations. [13] - As of the end of June this year, China's banking industry's total assets were nearly 470 trillion yuan, ranking first in the world. The stock and bond markets ranked second, and foreign exchange reserves ranked first for 20 consecutive years. During the 14th Five - Year Plan period, financial risks were generally controllable, and policies were optimized to support the real estate market and resolve financing platform debt risks. [14] - On September 22, the National Financial Regulatory Administration established a coordination mechanism for urban real estate financing, with over 7 trillion yuan in loans for "whitelist" projects, supporting the construction and delivery of nearly 20 million housing units. [15] Group 5: Data Overview - Treasury futures: Including information on the main contract's inter - period spread, inter - variety spread, and price trends [16][17][18] - Money market: Information on SHIBOR term structure changes, trends, and inter - bank repurchase rates [31][35] - Derivatives market: Information on Shibor3M and FR007 interest rate swap fixed - rate curves [37]