Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The report presents a mixed outlook for the sugar market. While there are some bullish factors such as good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, and increased syrup tariffs, there are also bearish factors including expected global sugar supply surplus, downward - trending technical indicators, and import pressure. The main 01 contract of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to have a short - term volatile rebound due to factors like pre - holiday profit - taking by short - sellers and potential damage to sugarcane crops from a typhoon [4][5][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1前日回顾 No information provided in the given content. 3.2每日提示 - Fundamentals: StoneX expects a 277 - million - ton global sugar supply surplus in the 25/26 season, while ISO predicts a 231,000 - ton supply gap, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. In August 2025, China produced 11.1621 billion tons of sugar in the 24/25 season, sold 10 billion tons, with a sales rate of 89.6%. China imported 830,000 tons of sugar in August 2025, a 60,000 - ton year - on - year increase, and 159,800 tons of syrup and premixes in July, a 68,500 - ton year - on - year decrease. Overall, this is bearish [4]. - Basis: The Liuzhou spot price is 5890, with a basis of 393 for the 01 contract, indicating a premium over the futures, which is bullish [5]. - Inventory: As of the end of August in the 24/25 season, the industrial inventory was 1.16 million tons, considered neutral [5]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below it, which is bearish [5]. - Main Position: The position is bearish, with an increase in net short positions, and the main trend is unclear, also bearish [5]. - Expectation: Before the National Day holiday, after consecutive days of decline in Zhengzhou sugar, some short - sellers took profits and exited. Typhoon "Koinu" affected the sugarcane - growing areas in southern Guangxi, potentially causing yield reduction. The main 01 contract shows a short - term volatile rebound [5]. 3.3今日关注 No information provided in the given content. 3.4基本面数据 - Supply and Demand Forecast: Different institutions have varying forecasts for the 25/26 season. ISO predicts a 231,000 - ton supply gap, Czarnikow predicts a 4.7 - million - ton surplus, and StoneX predicts a 1.21 - million - ton surplus [35]. - Domestic Sugar Production and Consumption: In 2025, the sugar production is expected to be 11.2 million tons, consumption is 15.9 million tons, and imports are 5 million tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5800 - 6500 yuan per ton [36]. - Import Cost: The cost of imported raw sugar after processing and 50% tariff payment varies. For example, in September 2025, with an average ICE raw sugar price of about 15.79 cents per pound from Brazil, the cost was 5454 yuan per ton [38]. 3.5持仓数据 No information provided in the given content.
白糖早报-20250925
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-09-25 02:44