沪锌期货早报-20250925

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The report suggests that the Shanghai zinc futures (ZN2511) are expected to oscillate weakly. The conclusion is based on a comprehensive analysis of multiple factors, including the fundamental supply - demand situation, basis, inventory, market trends, and positions of major players [2][20]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamentals - In July 2025, global zinc sheet production was 1.1515 million tons and consumption was 1.1629 million tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 11,300 tons. From January to July, production was 7.9452 million tons and consumption was 8.1585 million tons, with a supply shortage of 213,300 tons. In July, global zinc ore production was 1.0656 million tons, and from January to July, it was 7.3437 million tons [2]. 2. Basis - The spot price of zinc was 21,860 yuan, and the basis was +0, indicating a neutral situation [2]. 3. Inventory - On September 24, LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,375 tons to 44,400 tons, while SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 744 tons to 57,357 tons [2][6]. 4. Market Trends - The previous day, Shanghai zinc futures showed an oscillating downward trend, closing below the 20 - day moving average, with the 20 - day moving average pointing downward, presenting a bearish signal [2]. 5. Major Player Positions - The major players held a net long position, but the long positions decreased, showing a bullish tendency [2]. 6. Futures Market Quotes on September 24 - For the zinc futures contract, different delivery months had various price movements. For example, the 2510 contract had a previous settlement price of 21,945 yuan, a closing price of 21,845 yuan, and a decrease of 100 yuan. The trading volume was 38,405 lots, and the trading value was 420.67467 million yuan [3]. 7. Domestic Spot Market Quotes on September 24 - The prices of zinc - related products such as zinc concentrate, zinc ingots, galvanized sheets, galvanized pipes, zinc alloys, zinc powder, zinc oxide, and secondary zinc oxide all showed different degrees of decline [4]. 8. Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics in Major Domestic Markets - From September 11 to September 22, the total zinc ingot inventory in major domestic markets changed. Compared with September 15, it decreased by 50,000 tons, and compared with September 18, it decreased by 37,000 tons [5]. 9. Zinc Warrant Report on September 24 - The total zinc warrants on the SHFE were 57,357 tons, an increase of 744 tons. Different regions had different changes in warrants, such as an increase of 500 tons in Guangdong and an increase of 394 tons in Tianjin [6]. 10. LME Zinc Inventory Distribution on September 24 - The total LME zinc inventory was 44,400 tons, a decrease of 1,375 tons from the previous day. The registered warrants were 30,725 tons, and the cancelled warrants were 13,675 tons, with a cancellation ratio of 30.80% [8]. 11. Zinc Concentrate Prices in Major Domestic Cities on September 24 - Zinc concentrate prices in major domestic cities showed a downward trend, with most prices dropping by 20 - 50 yuan per ton [9]. 12. Zinc Ingot Smelter Prices on September 24 - The prices of zinc ingots from different smelters all decreased by 60 yuan per ton [13]. 13. Domestic Refined Zinc Production in June 2025 - The production of refined zinc in June 2025 was 471,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. The capacity utilization rate was 87.10%, and the planned production for July was 470,300 tons [15]. 14. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fees on September 23 - Zinc concentrate processing fees varied by region. For example, in some regions with a 50% grade, the average processing fee was 3,800 - 4,100 yuan per metal ton, and the import processing fee for 48% grade was 100 US dollars per dry ton [17]. 15. Ranking of Zinc Trading and Positions of SHFE Members on September 24 - For the zn2511 contract, in terms of trading volume, the top three were CITIC Futures, Guotai Junan, and Dongzheng Futures. In terms of long positions, the top three were CITIC Futures, Dongzheng Futures, and COFCO Futures. In terms of short positions, the top three were CITIC Futures, Guotai Junan, and Dongzheng Futures [18]. 16. Short - term View - The previous trading day, Shanghai zinc futures showed an oscillating downward trend. The trading volume shrank, and both long and short positions increased, with short positions increasing more. Technically, the price closed below the moving average system, and short - term indicators showed a weak trend. It is recommended that the Shanghai zinc ZN2511 contract will oscillate weakly [20].