沪镍、不锈钢早报-20250925

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - 沪镍: The outer market continues to rebound with support from the 20 - day moving average. The price of nickel ore is firm, and freight rates are stable with a slight increase. The price of nickel - iron rises slightly, but nickel - iron enterprises are still in the red. Stainless - steel inventory is falling, and the "Golden September and Silver October" period has seen good inventory reduction. New - energy vehicle production and sales data are good, but the installation of ternary batteries is declining, with limited boost to nickel demand. The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The 2511 contract of Shanghai nickel will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [2]. - 不锈钢: The spot price of stainless steel is flat. In the short term, the price of nickel ore and freight rates are firm, and the price of nickel - iron is rising steadily, with a firm cost line. Stainless - steel inventory is falling, and the "Golden September and Silver October" period has seen good inventory reduction. The 2511 contract of stainless steel will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Overview - 镍: On September 24, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 122,450 yuan, up 500 yuan from the previous day; the price of 1 Jinchuan nickel was 123,650 yuan, up 500 yuan; the price of 1 imported nickel was 121,600 yuan, up 500 yuan; and the price of nickel beans was 123,750 yuan, up 500 yuan. The price of the Shanghai nickel futures main contract was 121,450 yuan, up 540 yuan, and the price of LME nickel was 15,435 US dollars, up 95 US dollars [11]. - 不锈钢: On September 24, the average price of stainless steel was 14,012.5 yuan, and the price of the stainless - steel futures main contract was 12,895 yuan, up 5 yuan. The prices of cold - rolled coils in major regions remained unchanged [11]. Inventory - 镍: As of September 24, LME nickel inventory was 230,586 tons, an increase of 132 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel warehouse receipts were 24,971 tons, a decrease of 493 tons. The total inventory was 255,557 tons, a decrease of 361 tons [14]. - 不锈钢: As of September 19, the inventory in Wuxi was 579,200 tons, in Foshan was 288,000 tons, and the national inventory was 987,100 tons, a decrease of 25,400 tons compared with the previous period. The inventory of the 300 - series was 617,900 tons, a decrease of 5,800 tons. On September 24, the stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts were 88,233 tons, a decrease of 775 tons [18][19]. Raw Material Prices - 镍矿: On September 24, the price of red - clay nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 57 US dollars per wet ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of red - clay nickel ore CIF (Ni0.9%) was 29 US dollars per wet ton, unchanged. The freight rates from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port remained unchanged [21]. - 镍铁: The price of high - nickel (8 - 12) was 955.5 yuan per nickel point, unchanged; the price of low - nickel (below 2) was 3,450 yuan per ton, a decrease of 20 yuan [21]. Cost - 不锈钢 production cost: The traditional production cost was 13,165 yuan, the scrap - steel production cost was 13,511 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost was 16,859 yuan [23]. - Nickel import cost: The converted import price was 124,350 yuan per ton [26]. Influencing Factors - Positive factors: The "Golden September and Silver October" demand boost expectation, the anti - involution policy, and the cost line support at 120,000 yuan [6]. - Negative factors: The domestic production continues to increase significantly year - on - year, there is no new growth point in demand, and the long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged; the installation volume of ternary batteries is decreasing year - on - year [6].