工业硅期货早报-20250925

1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Industrial Silicon: The supply of industrial silicon increased last week, with a weekly supply of 92,000 tons, a 2.22% increase from the previous week. The demand also rose, reaching 80,000 tons, a 2.56% increase. The cost support in Xinjiang has weakened during the wet season. Overall, the fundamentals are neutral, and the price of Industrial Silicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate between 8,890 - 9,150 yuan/ton [6][7]. - Polysilicon: The production of polysilicon decreased last week, with a weekly output of 31,000 tons, a 0.64% decrease. The production of downstream silicon wafers, battery cells, and components is generally increasing, and the overall demand is showing a continuous recovery. The cost support is relatively stable. The price of Polysilicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate between 50,405 - 52,355 yuan/ton [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Industrial Silicon: The supply is increasing, the demand is rising, and the cost support is weakening. The market shows a complex situation with factors such as inventory increase and positive and negative factors in the basis and main positions. The price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range [6][7]. - Polysilicon: The production is decreasing, but the downstream demand is recovering. The cost is stable, and the price is expected to fluctuate in a specific range [9]. - Likely Positive Factors: Rising costs and manufacturers' plans to halt or reduce production [11]. - Likely Negative Factors: Slow recovery of post - holiday demand and strong supply but weak demand in downstream polysilicon. The main reason is the capacity mismatch [12]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Industrial Silicon: The report provides detailed data on prices, inventory, production, and capacity utilization of industrial silicon and its downstream products such as organic silicon and aluminum alloy. For example, the social inventory of industrial silicon is 543,000 tons, a 0.74% increase from the previous week [15]. - Polysilicon: It presents data on the production, cost, price, and inventory of polysilicon and its downstream silicon wafers, battery cells, and components. For instance, the weekly inventory of polysilicon is 204,000 tons, a 6.84% decrease [9][17]. 3.3 Market Trends and Balance Sheets - Industrial Silicon: Multiple charts show the trends of price - basis, inventory, production, capacity utilization, and supply - demand balance of industrial silicon. The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance sheets are also provided [19][25][35][38]. - Polysilicon: There are charts depicting the price trends, cost trends, and supply - demand balance of polysilicon and its downstream products [22][59][62].