大越期货沥青期货早报-20250925
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-09-25 02:49
- Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of asphalt are bullish, with the cost side supported by strong crude oil, the basis showing a spot premium over futures, and inventories in a continuous destocking mode. However, the disk and the main positions are bearish, with the MA20 moving downward and the main positions being net short with an increase in short positions. Overall, it is expected that the asphalt market will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, with the asphalt 2511 contract oscillating between 3371 - 3413 [7][8]. - The bullish factors include the relatively high - level cost of crude oil providing some support. The bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods, the overall downward trend in demand, and the strengthening expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States. The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [10][11][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - Supply Side: In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2413 thousand tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 36.3734%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06 percentage points. The total shipment of sample enterprises was 313.6 thousand tons, a month - on - month increase of 31.10%, and the sample enterprise output was 607 thousand tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.16%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 699 thousand tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.95%. Refineries have recently reduced production, alleviating supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - Demand Side: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 34.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged month - on - month, lower than the historical average; the modified asphalt开工率 was 20.2298%, a month - on - month increase of 1.71 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 30.31%, a month - on - month increase of 1.69 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 36.57%, a month - on - month increase of 0.50 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - Cost: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 556.31 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%, and the weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 706.6457 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12.97%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected to support the market in the short term [8]. - Basis: On September 24, the spot price in Shandong was 3500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 108 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [8]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 1.146 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.88%; the in - plant inventory was 653 thousand tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.53%; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 24 thousand tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.00%. All types of inventories are in a continuous destocking mode [8]. - Disk: The MA20 is moving downward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20, which is bearish [8]. - Main Positions: The main positions are net short, with an increase in short positions, which is bearish [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the price, inventory, and other data of different asphalt contracts (01 - 06 contracts), as well as the data of different types of asphalt such as East China heavy - traffic asphalt and Shandong local refinery asphalt, including the previous value, change, and change rate [15]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025, which can help analyze the relationship between the spot and futures prices [18]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread: The historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads from 2020 to 2025 are shown, which can be used to analyze the spread relationship between different contracts [21]. - Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend: The historical trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and WTI oil prices from 2020 to 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [24]. - Crude Oil Crack Spread: The historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crack spreads from 2020 to 2025 are shown, which can be used to analyze the refining profit relationship between asphalt and crude oil [27][28]. - Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend: The historical trends of the asphalt - SC price ratio and the asphalt - fuel oil price ratio from 2020 to 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the price relationship between asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [32]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the historical trend of the Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt price from 2020 to 2025, which can help understand the price changes in the local asphalt market [34]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis: - Asphalt Profit: The historical trend of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which can help analyze the profitability of asphalt production [36]. - Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend: The historical trend of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025 is shown, which can be used to analyze the profit difference between coking and asphalt production [40]. - Supply - Side Analysis: - Shipment Volume: The historical trends of the weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the supply situation from the perspective of shipment [43]. - Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory: The historical trend of the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 is shown, which can help understand the inventory situation of diluted asphalt [45]. - Output: The historical trends of the weekly and monthly asphalt output from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the overall supply situation of asphalt [48]. - Maya Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Output Trend: The historical trends of the Maya crude oil price and the Venezuelan crude oil monthly output from 2018 to 2025 are shown, which can help analyze the impact of raw material supply on asphalt production [53]. - Local Refinery Asphalt Output: The historical trend of the local refinery asphalt output from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which can help understand the supply situation of local refineries [55]. - Capacity Utilization Rate: The historical trends of the asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2021 to 2025 are shown, which can help analyze the production activity of asphalt enterprises [58]. - Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume: The historical trend of the estimated maintenance loss volume from 2018 to 2025 is presented, which can help understand the impact of equipment maintenance on asphalt supply [60]. - Inventory Analysis: - Exchange Warehouse Receipts: The historical trends of the exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the inventory situation in the futures market [63]. - Social Inventory and In - Plant Inventory: The historical trends of the social inventory (70 samples) and the in - plant inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2025 are shown, which can help understand the overall inventory situation of asphalt [67]. - In - Plant Inventory - to - Stock Ratio: The historical trend of the in - plant inventory - to - stock ratio from 2018 to 2025 is presented, which can help analyze the inventory management situation of enterprises [70]. - Import and Export Situation: - Export and Import Trends: The historical trends of asphalt exports and imports from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the international trade situation of asphalt [73]. - South Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend: The historical trend of the South Korean asphalt import spread from 2020 to 2025 is shown, which can help analyze the price difference in asphalt imports [76]. - Demand - Side Analysis: - Petroleum Coke Output: The historical trend of the petroleum coke output from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which can help analyze the demand for asphalt in related industries [79]. - Apparent Consumption: The historical trend of the asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 is shown, which can help understand the overall market demand for asphalt [82]. - Downstream Demand: - Highway Construction and Fixed - Asset Investment in Transportation: The historical trends of the highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment from 2020 to 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the demand for asphalt in infrastructure construction [85]. - New Local Special - Purpose Bonds and Infrastructure Investment Completion Rate: The historical trends of the new local special - purpose bonds and the infrastructure investment completion rate from 2019 to 2025 are shown, which can help understand the impact of policy investment on asphalt demand [86]. - Downstream Machinery Demand: The historical trends of the sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, the sales volume of domestic excavators, and the sales volume of road rollers from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the demand for asphalt in construction machinery [89][91][92]. - Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate: - Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate: The historical trend of the heavy - traffic asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which can help analyze the production activity of heavy - traffic asphalt [94]. - Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate by Use: The historical trends of the construction asphalt and modified asphalt capacity utilization rates from 2019 to 2025 are shown, which can help understand the production situation of different types of asphalt [97]. - Downstream Capacity Utilization Rate: The historical trends of the shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt capacity utilization rates from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the demand for asphalt in downstream industries [100][102]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: The report provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to September 2025, including production, import, export, and inventory data, which can help comprehensively analyze the supply - demand relationship of the asphalt market [105].