大越期货原油早报-20250925

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Overnight crude oil market continued to stabilize and rebound. Despite the resumption of supply in some previously shut - down areas and Goldman Sachs' prediction that EU sanctions on Russian oil would have limited impact, oil prices remained strong. The progress of China - US trade negotiations accelerated slightly, and the reduction of EIA crude oil and downstream inventories pushed up oil prices. Oil prices are currently more volatile with the changes in news. Short - term operation is in the range of 485 - 495, and long - term long positions should be held for observation [3] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - For crude oil 2511, the fundamentals are neutral as eight oil companies in Iraq's Kurdistan region reached a deal to resume oil exports, and EU's full - scale ban on Russian oil imports is "unlikely". The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures, which is bullish. US API and EIA inventories decreased, while Cushing area inventory increased. The 20 - day moving average is flat with the price above it, which is neutral. WTI and Brent crude oil main positions are long and increasing, which is bullish. It is expected that short - term operation is in the 485 - 495 range and long - term long positions should be held for observation [3] 2. Recent News - EIA report: Commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 607,000 barrels to 415 million barrels, a decrease of 0.15%. Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 177,000 barrels. US strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 230,000 barrels to 406 million barrels. Refined oil, heating oil, and gasoline inventories all decreased. - Oil and gas production and activities in major US production states decreased slightly in Q3 2025, and oilfield service companies' costs increased at a slower pace. Enterprises expect the WTI price to be $63 per barrel by the end of 2025. - Eight oil companies in Iraq's Kurdistan region reached a deal with the federal and regional governments to resume oil exports, allowing about 230,000 barrels per day of crude oil to resume transportation through the Iraq - Turkey pipeline [5] 3. Long - Short Concerns - Bullish factors: Not mentioned clearly - Bearish factors: Institutional monthly reports have a weak outlook for the future, and the trade relationship between the US and other economies remains tense. The market is driven by a short - term reduction in geopolitical conflicts and an increased risk of trade tariff issues, and a medium - to long - term increase in supply after the peak season ends [6] 4. Fundamental Data - Futures Market: The settlement prices of Brent crude, WTI crude, and SC crude increased, with increases of 1.49, 1.58, and 7.00 respectively, and increases of 2.22%, 2.49%, and 1.47% respectively. The settlement price of Oman crude decreased by 0.57, a decrease of 0.83% [7] - Spot Market: The prices of UK Brent, WTI, Oman crude, Shengli crude, and Dubai crude all increased, with increases ranging from 0.97 to 1.64 and increases ranging from 1.52% to 2.40% [9] - Inventory Data: US API inventory decreased by 3.821 million barrels in the week ending September 19, and EIA inventory decreased by 607,000 barrels, contrary to the expected increase of 235,000 barrels. Cushing area inventory increased by 177,000 barrels in the week ending September 19 [3][5] 5. Position Data - WTI Crude: As of September 16, the net long position increased by 16,865 to 98,709 [16] - Brent Crude: As of September 16, the net long position increased by 22,593 to 232,171 [19]