Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of aluminum are neutral with carbon neutrality controlling capacity expansion, weak downstream demand, and a soft real - estate market. The basis shows a slight discount to futures, also neutral. The inventory situation is neutral, and the price is trading below the 20 - day moving average while the 20 - day moving average is upward. The main positions are net long but the long positions are decreasing, showing a slightly bullish trend. Overall, due to the long - term positive impact of carbon neutrality on aluminum prices and the new US steel and aluminum tariffs, the aluminum price is expected to move in a volatile manner [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals are considered neutral due to carbon neutrality controlling capacity expansion, weak downstream demand, and a soft real - estate market [2]. - The basis is - 25, with the spot at 20680, indicating a discount to futures, neutral [2]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum inventory decreased by 765 tons to 127,734 tons, regarded as neutral [2]. - The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average while the 20 - day moving average is upward, neutral [2]. - The main net positions are long but the long positions are decreasing, slightly bullish [2]. - In the long run, carbon neutrality will drive changes in the aluminum industry and is positive for aluminum prices, but with the US expanding steel and aluminum tariffs, the aluminum price will move in a volatile manner [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - Likely factors: Carbon neutrality controls capacity expansion; geopolitical disturbances between Russia and Ukraine affect Russian aluminum supply; interest rate cuts [3]. - Negative factors: The global economy is not optimistic, and high aluminum prices will suppress downstream consumption; the export tax rebate for aluminum products is cancelled [3]. - Logic: There is a game between interest rate cuts and weak demand [3]. Daily Summary - Spot prices: Shanghai's spot price was 70,770, down 375; Nanchu's was 70,690, down 450; Changjiang's was 70,870 [4]. - Inventory: Warehouse receipts were 70,798, up 699; LME inventory was 74,750, down 425; SHFE inventory (daily) was 136,300, up 29,728 [4]. Supply - Demand Balance - The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table of aluminum shows different supply - demand situations from 2018 to 2024. In 2018, the supply - demand balance was - 47.61 million tons; in 2019, it was - 68.61 million tons; in 2020, it was 1.3 million tons; in 2021, it was - 14.2 million tons; in 2022, it was - 29.98 million tons; in 2023, it was - 4.31 million tons; and in 2024, it is expected to be 15 million tons [20][22].
大越期货沪铝早报-20250925
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-09-25 03:04