Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For gold, due to the rebound of the US dollar, gold prices declined. However, high expectations of interest rate cuts, supply concerns (as evidenced by copper prices rising over 3% to a more than one - year high), and the expansion of the Shanghai gold premium may support gold prices. Gold prices are still likely to rise easily and fall difficult under the current global situation [4]. - For silver, silver prices also dropped as the US dollar rebounded. But it may be supported by supply concerns and high interest - rate cut expectations, and the upward trend of silver prices remains unchanged [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review - Gold: The US dollar rebounded, causing gold prices to fall. US stocks slightly declined, European stocks had mixed performance, US Treasury yields rose (10 - year Treasury yield increased by 4.24 basis points to 4.149%), the US dollar index rose 0.65% to 97.86, and the offshore RMB depreciated significantly against the US dollar. COMEX gold futures fell 1.24% to $3768.5 per ounce. The basis was - 4.86, indicating the spot was at a discount to the futures. Gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 1530 kilograms to 60543 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above it. The main positions were net long, but the long positions of the main players decreased [4][5]. - Silver: The US dollar rebounded, leading to a drop in silver prices. US stocks declined across the board, European stocks had mixed performance, US Treasury yields fell (10 - year Treasury yield decreased by 4.06 basis points to 4.106%), the US dollar index fell 0.08% to 97.23, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar. COMEX silver futures fell 1.11% to $44.115 per ounce. The basis was - 67, and the Shanghai silver premium slightly expanded to around 240 yuan per kilogram. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above it. The main positions were net long, and the long positions of the main players increased [6]. 2. Daily Tips - Gold: Positive factors include global turmoil with remaining risk - aversion sentiment, strong expectations of interest rate cuts, tense situations in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East leading to rising inflation, and tariff concerns. Negative factors include the implementation of Trump's new policies, improved US economic expectations, significant interest - rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and black - swan events. The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, with inflation expectations shifting to economic recession expectations, making it difficult for gold prices to decline. The verification between the expected and actual policies of the new US government will continue, and gold prices are still likely to rise easily and fall difficult [10]. - Silver: Positive factors are similar to those of gold, with tariff concerns having a stronger impact on silver prices. Negative factors are also the same as those of gold. The logic is that silver prices generally follow gold prices, and due to stronger tariff concerns, silver prices may see an expanded increase [13]. 3. Today's Focus - Events: At 07:50, the Bank of Japan will release the minutes of its July monetary policy meeting; the Alibaba 2025 Yunqi Conference will be held from September 24 - 26 in Hangzhou, the Xiaomi 17 series launch event and the 2025 Eurasian Economic Forum will be held in Xi'an; at 14:00, Germany's October GfK consumer confidence index will be released; at 14:45, European Central Bank Governing Council member Kazimir will present macro - expectations; at 15:30, the Swiss National Bank will announce its interest - rate decision; at 16:00, the European Central Bank will publish its economic bulletin, and the Swiss National Bank President Schlegel will hold a press conference; at 20:15, Federal Reserve Governor Milan will participate in a Bloomberg TV program; at 20:20, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (a 2025 FOMC voter) will speak; at 20:30, the final value of the US second - quarter GDP, the preliminary value of August durable goods orders, the goods trade balance, and wholesale inventories will be released; at 21:00, New York Fed President Williams will give a welcome speech at the Fourth Annual Conference on the International Role of the US Dollar, and Kansas City Fed President Schmid (a 2025 FOMC voter) will speak; at 22:00, the annualized total number of existing home sales in the US in August will be released, and Federal Reserve Governor Bowman will speak on regulatory issues; at 01:00 the next day, former Federal Reserve Vice - Chairman for Supervision Barr will talk about bank stress tests; at 01:40, Dallas Fed President Logan's speech manuscript will be released; at 03:00 the next day, the Bank of Mexico will announce its interest - rate decision; at 03:30, San Francisco Fed President Daly (a 2027 FOMC voter) will speak [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The basis was - 4.86, indicating the spot was at a discount to the futures, which is a bearish factor. Gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 1530 kilograms to 60543 kilograms, also a bearish factor [5]. - Silver: The basis was - 67, which is a neutral factor. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 12756 kilograms to 1161799 kilograms, also a neutral factor [6]. 5. Position Data - Gold: The main positions were net long, but the long positions of the main players decreased, which is a bullish factor [5]. - Silver: The main positions were net long, and the long positions of the main players increased, which is a bullish factor [6].
贵金属早报-20250925
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-09-25 03:13