广发期货《特殊商品》日报-20250925

Group 1: Rubber Industry - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: Supply is affected by rainy season and typhoons, cost support weakens, downstream tire factory restocking is mostly done, inventory reduction slows. Demand has some enterprises short - stocked but overall sales are below expectations. Focus on typhoon impact, 01 contract range is 15000 - 16500, and follow raw material output in peak season [1] - Summary of relevant catalogs: - Spot prices: Yunnan Guofu full - latex increased by 0.68%, cup glue in the international market rose 0.20%, etc [1] - Monthly spreads: 9 - 1 spread decreased by 220.00%, 1 - 5 spread increased by 87.50% [1] - Fundamentals: July Thailand's production increased by 1.61%, July Indonesia's production rose by 12.09%, August domestic tire production increased by 9.10% [1] - Inventory changes: Bonded area inventory decreased by 0.95%, natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory in SHFE decreased by 3.07% [1] Group 2: Log Industry - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: Logs are in a volatile pattern, with low trading volume. As the traditional peak season approaches, observe if the shipment volume improves. In the short - term, the market is expected to fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to go long at low prices [3] - Summary of relevant catalogs: - Futures and spot prices: Log 2511 contract decreased by 2 yuan/cubic meter, major delivery - product spot prices were stable [3] - Cost: Import theoretical cost increased by 0.51 yuan [3] - Supply and demand: Port shipment volume decreased by 3.87%, demand side's daily outbound volume decreased by 5% [3] - Inventory: National coniferous log inventory decreased by 3.31% [3] Group 3: Glass and Soda Ash Industry - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: Soda ash rebounds and then weakens, with an over - supply situation. Glass was driven up by rumors, but the mid - stream inventory is high and the industry still has an over - supply problem [4] - Summary of relevant catalogs: - Glass prices: North China, Central China, and South China quotes increased by 0.87%, 0.88%, and 0.81% respectively [4] - Soda ash prices: Main regional prices remained unchanged [4] - Supply: Soda ash weekly output decreased by 2.02%, float glass daily melting volume decreased by 0.47% [4] - Inventory: Glass factory inventory decreased by 1.10%, soda ash factory inventory decreased by 2.33% [4] - Real estate data: New construction area increased by 0.09%, sales area decreased by 6.50% [4] Group 4: Polysilicon Industry - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: The supply - side regulation effect is not as expected, the industry has over - capacity. Polysilicon prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton before the National Day [5] - Summary of relevant catalogs: - Spot prices: N - type re - feeding material average price decreased by 0.28%, N - type 210mm component for centralized projects increased by 0.15% [5] - Futures prices: The main contract increased by 2.23% [5] - Fundamentals: Weekly polysilicon production decreased by 0.64%, monthly production increased by 23.31% [5] - Inventory: Polysilicon inventory decreased by 6.85%, silicon wafer inventory increased by 1.93% [5] Group 5: Industrial Silicon Industry - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: From September to October, the supply of industrial silicon increases, and the market will gradually become more balanced. It is expected to be in a volatile state, with a price range of 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton [6] - Summary of relevant catalogs: - Spot prices and basis: East China oxygen - containing S15530 industrial silicon remained unchanged, the basis of N - type material (average price) decreased by 53.14% [6] - Monthly spreads: 2510 - 2511 spread increased by 14.29%, 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 1.25% [6] - Fundamentals: National industrial silicon production increased by 14.01%, national开工率 increased by 6.20% [6] - Inventory: Xinjiang inventory decreased by 1.07%, social inventory increased by 0.74% [6]