广发期货《有色》日报-20250925

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Copper - Grasberg mine accident intensifies concerns about tight global copper supply, and the copper price is expected to rise in the long - term. Short - term prices are driven up by mine disruptions, with support at 81000 - 81500 [2]. Aluminum - Alumina is in a "high supply, high inventory, weak demand" situation, with the short - term price range of the main contract expected to be 2850 - 3150 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level after a decline, with the main contract reference range of 20600 - 21000 yuan/ton [5]. Aluminum Alloy - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to remain in a high - level shock, with the main contract reference range of 20200 - 20600 yuan/ton [7]. Zinc - The supply of zinc is expected to be loose, and the short - term price may rise due to macro - driving, but the fundamentals provide limited upward elasticity. The main contract reference range is 21500 - 22500 [10]. Tin - The supply side of tin is strong, supporting the tin price to continue the high - level shock, with the operating range of 265000 - 285000 [12]. Nickel - The nickel market has a weak macro - atmosphere, and the price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 119000 - 124000 [14]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market has firm raw material prices and cost support, but the peak - season demand fails to meet expectations. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate and adjust, with the main contract reference range of 12800 - 13200 [16][17]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is in a tight balance. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate and organize, with the main price center in the range of 70000 - 75000 [18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - Price and Basis: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 80045 yuan/ton, up 0.04%. The refined - scrap price difference is 1879 yuan/ton, up 4.45%. - Fundamental Data: In August, the electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, down 0.24%; the import volume was 26.43 million tons, down 10.99% [2]. Aluminum - Price and Spread: SMM A00 aluminum price is 20680 yuan/ton, unchanged. The alumina prices in various regions are all slightly down. - Fundamental Data: In August, the alumina production was 773.82 million tons, up 1.15%; the electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, up 0.30% [5]. Aluminum Alloy - Price and Spread: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 20850 yuan/ton, unchanged. The refined - scrap price differences in various regions are all down. - Fundamental Data: In August, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 61.50 million tons, down 1.60%; the primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 27.10 million tons, up 1.88% [7]. Zinc - Price and Spread: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 21820 yuan/ton, down 0.27%. The import profit and loss is - 3230 yuan/ton. - Fundamental Data: In August, the refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, up 3.88%; the import volume was 2.57 million tons, up 43.30% [10]. Tin - Price and Spread: SMM 1 tin price is 271400 yuan/ton, up 0.26%. The import profit and loss is - 13025.42 yuan/ton. - Fundamental Data: In July, the tin ore import was 10278 tons, down 13.71%; the refined tin production was 15940 tons, up 15.42% [12]. Nickel - Price and Spread: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 122450 yuan/ton, up 0.41%. The import profit and loss is - 1374 yuan/ton. - Fundamental Data: The Chinese refined nickel production is 32200 tons, up 1.26%; the import volume is 17536 tons, down 8.46% [14]. Stainless Steel - Price and Spread: The 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price is 13100 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Fundamental Data: The Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production is 171.33 million tons, down 3.83%; the import volume is 11.72 million tons, up 60.48% [16]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Spread: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 73850 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Fundamental Data: In August, the lithium carbonate production was 85240 tons, up 4.55%; the demand was 104023 tons, up 8.25% [18].