Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of domestic cis - butadiene rubber is sufficient, with increased production and more external resources of raw material butadiene. There is a lack of positive factors in cost and supply, and some industry players are waiting to see if the ex - factory prices of Sinopec and PetroChina resources will be lowered. [2] - Near the National Day holiday, downstream terminals may start to pick up goods, and the overall inventory level of enterprises is expected to decline slightly. [2] - The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuated slightly last week. The snow - tire orders of semi - steel tires in the domestic market are in the concentrated production period, which still supports the overall operation, while the demand in the replacement market of all - steel tires has not improved significantly, and some enterprises face export pressure. The short - term capacity utilization rate of enterprises may decline slightly. [2] - The short - term price of the br2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11390 - 11850. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 11545 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 25 yuan/ton; the position volume is 51154, with a week - on - week decrease of 7496. [2] - The 10 - 11 spread of synthetic rubber is 15 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 2670 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 100 tons. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream prices of cis - butadiene rubber from different manufacturers all increased by 50 yuan/ton. [2] - The basis of synthetic rubber is 105 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 25 yuan/ton. [2] - The price of Brent crude oil is 69.31 dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 1.68 dollars/barrel; the price of WTI crude oil is 64.99 dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 1.58 dollars/barrel. [2] - The price of naphtha CFR Japan is 606 dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 8.5 dollars/ton; the price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 840 dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 5 dollars/ton. [2] - The intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1060 dollars/ton, with no change; the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 9315 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 85 yuan/ton. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene is 15.11 million tons/week, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.01 million tons/week; the capacity utilization rate is 66.78%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.55 percentage points. [2] - The port inventory of butadiene is 23100 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2500 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 51.85%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.21 percentage points. [2] - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 13.57 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.65 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 69.72%, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.76 percentage points. [2] - The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 658 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 149 yuan/ton. [2] - The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 3.37 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.08 million tons; the manufacturer's inventory is 25900 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 400 tons; the trader's inventory is 7820 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 390 tons. [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 73.66%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.2 percentage points; the operating rate of all - steel tires is 65.66%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.07 percentage points. [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.03 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 280,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.06 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 1.09 million pieces. [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 39.13 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.3 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 46.02 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.08 days. [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of September 24, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 32,300 tons, a decrease of 0.14 million tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 4.21%. [2] - As of September 18, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.74%, a week - on - week increase of 0.13 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.92 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.36%, a week - on - week increase of 0.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.18 percentage points. [2] - In August 2025, the output of Chinese cis - butadiene rubber was 13.57 million tons, an increase of 0.65 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 5.02% and a year - on - year increase of 30.73%. [2]
合成橡胶产业日报-20250925
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-25 09:26