瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20250925

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. In the Yunnan region, rainfall disturbances persist, and with strong procurement demand from processing plants, raw material prices remain firm. Typhoon "Hagasa" brought heavy rainfall to the Hainan region, significantly affecting tapping operations, restricting the output of fresh latex, tightening the supply of local raw materials, and limiting the actual procurement volume of local rubber processing plants by processing plants. Recently, the inventory at Qingdao ports continued to decline, but the decline rate narrowed. The bonded warehouses continued to reduce inventory, while the general trade warehouses continued to accumulate inventory slightly. Overseas shipments arrived at the port and were concentrated in storage. The inbound volume of Qingdao warehouses increased significantly and exceeded expectations. Previously, downstream tire factories gradually picked up and shipped out orders, but the quantity was limited. The outbound volume of bonded warehouses was better than that of general trade warehouses, and general trade warehouses continued to show a slight inventory accumulation state. In terms of demand, last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuated slightly. The domestic sales of snow tires for semi - steel tires had concentrated production scheduling, and some enterprises moderately increased production, which still provided some support for the overall operation rate. The demand in the replacement market for all - steel tires did not improve significantly, and some enterprises faced pressure in foreign trade exports. Currently, although some enterprises still faced shortages, the enterprise equipment operated stably to replenish inventory, but the overall sales performance fell short of expectations, and the inventory of some enterprises still showed signs of increase. To relieve the pressure, some enterprises may flexibly control production, and the short - term capacity utilization rate of enterprises may be slightly reduced. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,400 - 16,000 in the short term, and the nr2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,300 - 12,800 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 15,570 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main 20 - rubber contract was 12,430 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 20 yuan/ton; the 11 - 12 spread of 20 - rubber was 55 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - rubber was - 15 yuan/ton. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 152,529 lots, a decrease of 799 lots; the position of the main 20 - rubber contract was 51,920 lots, a decrease of 2,296 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 27,840 lots, a decrease of 1,019 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - rubber was - 1,525 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 153,570 tons, a decrease of 2,260 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - rubber were 44,756 tons, a decrease of 100 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 15,250 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,870 US dollars/ton, an increase of 35 US dollars/ton; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,870 US dollars/ton, an increase of 35 US dollars/ton. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,880 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,830 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's SBR 1502 was 12,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's BR 9000 was 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of Shanghai rubber was 100 yuan/ton; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 720 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton. The price of 20 - rubber in the Qingdao market was 13,220 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton; the basis of the main 20 - rubber contract was 790 yuan/ton, an increase of 75 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of RSS3 in Thailand was 59.35 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 0.38 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber sheets was 57.3 Thai baht/kg, unchanged. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber latex was 55.3 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai cup lump was 50.8 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.35 Thai baht/kg. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was - 7.6 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 151 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly import volume of technically - specified natural rubber was 11.31 million tons, a decrease of 0.88 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 26.84 million tons, an increase of 0.89 million tons. The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.66%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 73.66%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 39.13 days, an increase of 0.3 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 46.02 days, an increase of 0.08 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 280,000 pieces, an increase of 28,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 5.806 million pieces, an increase of 1.303 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 15.59%, a decrease of 0.13 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 15.17%, a decrease of 1.25 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 23.31%, an increase of 0.36 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 23.33%, an increase of 0.36 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - According to Longzhong Information statistics, as of September 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in the Qingdao area was 461,200 tons (the previous total inventory was 464,700 tons after inventory adjustment), a decrease of 3,600 tons from the previous period, a decline of 0.76%. The bonded area inventory was 69,400 tons (the previous bonded inventory was 73,100 tons after inventory adjustment), a decline of 5.07%; the general trade inventory was 391,800 tons (the previous general trade inventory was 391,600 tons after inventory adjustment), an increase of 0.04%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses increased by 0.59 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 2.91 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.32 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.78 percentage points. As of September 18, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.74%, a month - on - month increase of 0.13 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.92 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.36%, a month - on - month increase of 0.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.18 percentage points [2].