瑞达期货白糖产业日报-20250925

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The domestic sugar market shows that in August 2025, China's sugar imports increased significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year. With the end of Mid - Autumn Festival stocking, the upcoming start of sugar mills in the north, and a slight expected increase in sugar production in the new year, the spot price is expected to weaken steadily. Although the typhoon in the western Guangdong region brought strong winds and heavy rains, its impact on sugarcane is less than last year's typhoon, and the short - term market sentiment may recover. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract is 5485 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; the main contract position is 431,349 hands, down 7,657 hands; the number of warehouse receipts is 9,793, down 61; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions is - 79,526 hands; the effective warehouse receipt forecast is 0; the estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar (within quota) and Thai sugar (within quota) are not provided; the estimated import price of Brazilian sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) is 4,384 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the estimated import price of Thai sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) is not provided [2]. 2. Spot Market - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,810 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Nanning is 5,780 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Liuzhou is 5,890 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1,480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugarcane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, down 12.86 thousand hectares [2]. 4. Industry Situation - The national cumulative sugar production is 1,116.21 million tons, up 5.49 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales volume is 999.98 million tons, up 44.98 million tons; the national industrial sugar inventory is 304.83 million tons, down 81.43 million tons; the national sugar sales rate is 89.59%, up 1 percentage point; the monthly sugar import volume is 830,000 tons, up 90,000 tons; the total monthly sugar exports from Brazil are 374.4 million tons, up 15.03 million tons; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar (within quota) is 1,306 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar (within quota) is 1,348 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and Liuzhou sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) is 124 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) is 178 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan [2]. 5. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar is 45.41 million tons, up 4.41 million tons; the monthly output of soft drinks is 1,775.8 million tons, down 20.8 million tons [2]. 6. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 8.07%, down 0.12 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar is 8.07%, down 0.11 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 5.54%, up 0.16 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of sugar is 6.34%, up 0.03 percentage points [2]. 7. Industry News - According to data from Brazilian shipping agency Williams, as of the week ending September 24, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 76, down from 85 the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped at ports was 3.1039 million tons, down from 3.2827 million tons the previous week. The most actively traded March raw sugar futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) closed almost flat, pressured by the prospect of sufficient supply, closing down 0.02 cents, or 0.10%, at 16.13 cents per pound. Overnight, the sugar 2601 contract closed up 0.60% [2].