瑞达期货螺纹钢产业链日报-20250925

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On Thursday, the RB2601 contract fluctuated. The central bank announced a 600 billion yuan MLF operation on September 25, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan this month, a seventh consecutive month of increased roll - overs. The weekly output of rebar remained low with a capacity utilization rate of 45.26%. During the consumption peak season, inventory continued to decline and apparent demand increased. Overall, the steel market was mixed. With the approaching long - holiday, there would be a tug - of - war between bulls and bears, and the market might range - bound. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2601 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were near the 0 - axis with shrinking green bars. Short - term trading was recommended, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - RB main contract closing price was 3,167 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; RB main contract open interest was 1,870,449 lots, down 11,775 lots; RB contract top 20 net positions were - 171,227 lots, up 20,425 lots; RB1 - 5 contract spread was - 58 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; RB SHFE warehouse receipt daily report was 277,122 tons, up 7,616 tons; HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread was 191 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2] Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,340 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Hangzhou (actual weight) was 3,426 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,340 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,230 yuan/ton, unchanged. RB main contract basis was 173 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spot spread was 80 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 789 yuan/wet ton, down 3 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,280 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet was 3,030 yuan/ton, unchanged. The 45 - port iron ore inventory was 138.0422 million tons, down 489,100 tons; the sample coking plant coke inventory was 422,100 tons, down 15,500 tons [2] Industry Situation - The sample steel mill coke inventory was 6.449 million tons, up 112,900 tons; the Tangshan billet inventory was 1.225 million tons, up 7,700 tons. The 247 steel mill blast furnace operating rate was 84%, up 0.15 percentage points; the 247 steel mill blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.38%, up 0.18 percentage points. The sample steel mill rebar output was 2.0646 million tons, up 100 tons; the sample steel mill rebar capacity utilization rate was 45.26%, unchanged. The sample steel mill rebar inventory was 1.6441 million tons, down 6,600 tons; the 35 - city rebar social inventory was 4.7189 million tons, down 133,200 tons. The independent electric arc furnace steel mill operating rate was 67.71%, down 2.08 percentage points; the domestic crude steel output was 77.37 million tons, down 2.29 million tons. The monthly output of Chinese rebar was 1.518 million tons, down 23,000 tons; the net steel export volume was 901,000 tons, down 38,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.05, down 0.28; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion was 0.5%, down 1.1 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment completion was - 12.9%, down 0.9 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was 2%, down 1.2 percentage points. The cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.43109 billion square meters, down 43.78 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 398.01 million square meters, down 45.95 million square meters; the commercial housing unsold area was 402.29 million square meters, up 3.07 million square meters [2] Industry News - On September 25, Mysteel reported that the actual rebar output was 2.0646 million tons, up 100 tons week - on - week; the mill inventory was 1.6441 million tons, down 6,600 tons; the social inventory was 4.7189 million tons, down 133,200 tons; the total inventory was 6.363 million tons, down 139,800 tons; the apparent demand was 2.2044 million tons, up 104,100 tons. Also, on September 25, rainfall affected 2 tailings ponds in Guangxi with over 100 mm of rain (0 "over - head" ponds), and 65 tailings ponds in Guangxi, Guizhou and Yunnan with 50 - 100 mm of rain (1 "over - head" pond) [2]