Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The alumina market shows a slightly bullish trend in the main contract, with decreasing positions, spot discounts, and weakening basis. It is recommended to go long on dips with a light position [2]. - The Shanghai aluminum market has a slightly bullish main contract, decreasing positions, spot premiums, and strengthening basis. It is advisable to go long on dips with a light position [2]. - The cast - aluminum market has a main contract that rises and then retraces, increasing positions, spot premiums, and weakening basis. It is suggested to go long on dips with a light position [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Aluminum - related Contracts: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 20,765 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 2,942 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the closing price of the cast - aluminum alloy main contract is 20,385 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan [2]. - Inventory and Spread: The Shanghai aluminum previous 20 - net position is - 9,281 hands, down 3024 hands; the LME aluminum inventory is 517,150 tons, up 3300 tons; the spread between the main and the second - continuous contract of Shanghai aluminum is - 5 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Prices: The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum is 20,770 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 2,905 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide is 20,900 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. - Basis: The basis of cast - aluminum alloy is 515 yuan/ton, down 195 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum is 5 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the basis of alumina is - 37 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production and Demand: Alumina production is 792.47 million tons, up 35.98 million tons; the demand for alumina in the electrolytic aluminum part is 725.80 million tons, up 3.73 million tons; the supply - demand balance of alumina is 28.73 million tons, up 12.41 million tons [2]. - Trade: China's import of aluminum scrap and waste is 172,610.37 tons, up 12115.77 tons; the export is 53.23 tons, down 26.16 tons; the export of alumina is 18.00 million tons, down 5.00 million tons; the import is 9.44 million tons, down 3.16 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Production and Capacity: The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 4,523.20 million tons, unchanged; the production of electrolytic aluminum is 217,260.71 tons, down 30322.61 tons; the production of aluminum products is 554.82 million tons, up 6.45 million tons [2]. - Inventory: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum is 59.80 million tons, up 0.40 million tons; the Shanghai aluminum inventory in the previous period is 127,734 tons, down 765 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - Production: The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 63.59 million tons, up 1.27 million tons; the production of aluminum alloy is 163.50 million tons, up 9.90 million tons; the production of automobiles is 275.24 million vehicles, up 24.21 million vehicles [2]. - Index: The National Housing Prosperity Index is 93.05, down 0.28 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - Volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum is 6.46%, up 0.01%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 6.04%, down 0.14%; the implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main at - the - money IV is 10.83%, up 0.0014% [2]. - Ratio: The call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options is 1.08, down 0.0424 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Central Bank Statements: FOMC voter Goolsbee warns against a series of interest rate cuts due to inflation concerns; Daly believes that economic growth and labor are slowing, and inflation is lower than expected, suggesting further rate cuts [2]. - Mining Incident: Freeport's Grasberg mine in Indonesia suffered a mudslide on September 8, leading to casualties and damage to mining facilities, and the mine is suspended, with potential production delays in Q4 2025 and 2026 [2]. - Trade Policy: Chinese Premier Li Qiang states that China will not seek new special and differential treatment in WTO negotiations, and hopes that the EU will keep trade and investment markets open and avoid politicizing and securitizing economic and trade issues [2]. 3.8 Key Points of Different Aluminum Products - Alumina: The main contract is oscillating strongly, with decreasing positions and weakening basis. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is slightly increasing, but the demand boost is less than the supply growth. It is recommended to go long on dips with a light position [2]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The main contract is oscillating bullishly, with decreasing positions and strengthening basis. The supply is stable, and the demand is boosted. The option market is bullish. It is recommended to go long on dips with a light position [2]. - Cast - Aluminum Alloy: The main contract rises and then retraces, with increasing positions and weakening basis. The supply is limited by raw materials, and the demand is slightly recovering but still weak. It is recommended to go long on dips with a light position [2].
瑞达期货铝类产业日报-20250925
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-25 09:31