玉米系产业日报-20250925

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Corn: With the approaching harvest season, the supply pressure of US corn is gradually increasing, although there are expectations of a downward adjustment in production due to mixed early - harvest reports. In the domestic market, new corn is coming onto the market, but downstream demand is weak, and deep - processing enterprises are facing increased losses, leading to a downward adjustment in purchase prices. The corn market maintains a bearish outlook [2]. - Corn Starch: The corn starch market is currently weak, and enterprises are in a loss state. Despite a decrease in inventory recently, the overall inventory remains high, and the substitution advantages of cassava starch and wheat starch are significant, squeezing market demand. The starch market also maintains a bearish outlook [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Prices and Spreads: The closing price of the active corn starch futures contract is 2474 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton. The corn monthly spread (1 - 5) is - 63 yuan/ton, and the corn starch monthly spread (11 - 1) is 13 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton [2]. - Positions: The futures position of the active yellow corn contract is 729,266 lots, a decrease of 17,708 lots; the futures position of the active corn starch contract is 172,607 lots, a decrease of 12,616 lots. The net long position of the top 20 corn futures holders is - 35,819 lots, a decrease of 14,837 lots; the net long position of the top 20 corn starch futures holders is - 38,499 lots, a decrease of 2,878 lots [2]. - Warehouse Receipts: The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn are 21,814 lots, a decrease of 2,000 lots; the registered warehouse receipts of corn starch are 8,250 lots, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Outer Market - CBOT Corn: The closing price of the active CBOT corn futures contract is 424 cents/bushel, down 1.75 cents/bushel. The total position of CBOT corn is 1,529,796 lots, an increase of 51,949 lots. The non - commercial net long position of CBOT corn is 18,075 lots, a decrease of 36,169 lots [2]. 3.3 Spot Market - Corn Spot Price: The average spot price of corn is 2364.9 yuan/ton, up 7.65 yuan/ton. The flat - hold price of corn at Jinzhou Port is 2310 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The CIF price of imported corn is 1945.94 yuan/ton, up 6.39 yuan/ton [2]. - Corn Starch Spot Price: The ex - factory quotes of corn starch in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2560 yuan/ton, 2800 yuan/ton, and 2730 yuan/ton respectively, all unchanged [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - Sowing Area and Yield Forecast: The predicted sowing area of corn in the US is 425.26 million hectares, an increase of 0.77 million hectares; the predicted yield is 131 million tons, an increase of 0 million tons. The predicted sowing area of corn in Brazil is 35.89 million hectares, an increase of 0 million hectares; the predicted yield is 22.6 million tons, an increase of 0 million tons [2]. - Inventory: The corn inventory at southern ports is 60.1 tons, a decrease of 5.5 tons; the deep - processing corn inventory is 211.8 tons, a decrease of 36.9 tons. The corn inventory at northern ports is 87 tons, a decrease of 53 tons [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - Import and Export: The monthly import volume of corn is 6 tons, a decrease of 10 tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 15,940 tons, an increase of 1,440 tons [2]. - Production: The monthly production of feed is 2927.2 tons, an increase of 99.9 tons [2]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - Feed and Processing Profit: The sample feed corn inventory days are 26.16 days, a decrease of 0.75 days. The corn starch processing profit in Shandong is - 72 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton; the processing profit in Hebei is 7 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton; the processing profit in Jilin is - 165 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton [2]. - 开机率: The alcohol enterprise operating rate is 50.31%, a decrease of 1.28%; the starch enterprise operating rate is 50.36%, an increase of 2.21% [2]. 3.7 Option Market - Volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 10%, unchanged; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.52%, a decrease of 0.1%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 10.36%, a decrease of 0.14%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 10.56%, an increase of 0.06% [2]. 3.8 Industry News - As of September 24, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions across the country is 211.8 tons, a decrease of 9.49% [2]. - CBOT corn futures fell on Wednesday due to harvest pressure and weak soybean prices, while the corn 2511 contract rose 0.32% [2]. - The USDA report predicts that the US corn production in the 2025/26 season will reach 16.814 billion bushels, a record high, and the ending inventory will also reach a seven - year high [2]. 3.9 Key Points to Follow - Pay attention to the weekly corn consumption data from mysteel and the operating rate and inventory of starch enterprises on Thursday and Friday, as well as the USDA monthly supply - demand report at 0:00 on the 13th [3].