锰硅硅铁产业日报-20250925

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - On September 25, the silicon ferroalloy 2511 contract was reported at 5786, up 0.94%. On the spot side, the spot price of silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia was reported at 5480. From a macro perspective, the global crude steel output from January to August decreased by 1.7% year - on - year. In terms of supply and demand, after the profit improved in the early stage, the output rebounded rapidly. Most manufacturers hedged in the early stage, and the inventory was at a neutral level. In the short term, the cost was somewhat supportive. In terms of profit, the spot profit in Inner Mongolia was - 320 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia it was - 360 yuan/ton. In the market, the tender price of HBIS Group's 75B silicon ferroalloy in September was set at 5800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 230 yuan/ton from the previous round. Technically, the daily K - line was above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile operation. [2] - On September 25, the ferromanganese silicon 2601 contract was reported at 5938, up 0.47%. On the spot side, the spot price of ferromanganese silicon in Inner Mongolia was reported at 5740, up 20 yuan/ton. From a macro perspective, on September 23, South Korea decided to impose anti - dumping duties on carbon steel and alloy steel hot - rolled coils originating from China and Japan. Fundamentally, the output has been on an upward trend since mid - May, and the inventory has rebounded significantly this period. On the cost side, the port inventory of imported manganese ore decreased by 253,000 tons. On the demand side, the molten iron production has rebounded to the previous level. In terms of profit, the spot profit in Inner Mongolia was - 55 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia it was - 145 yuan/ton. In the market, the final price of ferromanganese silicon of HBIS Group in September was 6000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton month - on - month. Technically, the daily K - line was between the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile operation. [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM (ferromanganese silicon) main contract closing price was 5938 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan; SF (silicon ferroalloy) main contract closing price was 5786 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan [2]. - SM futures contract open interest was 529,129 lots, down 9301 lots; SF futures contract open interest was 369,202 lots, down 1439 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in ferromanganese silicon was - 70,716 lots, down 823 lots; the net position of the top 20 in silicon ferroalloy was - 33,704 lots, down 999 lots [2]. - The SM 5 - 1 month contract spread was 42 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the SF 5 - 1 month contract spread was 102 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [2]. - SM warehouse receipts were 59,475 pieces, down 539 pieces; SF warehouse receipts were 17,710 pieces, down 69 pieces [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of ferromanganese silicon FeMn68Si18 in Inner Mongolia was 5740 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Guizhou it was 5750 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; in Yunnan it was 5680 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan [2]. - The price of silicon ferroalloy FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia was 5560 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Qinghai it was 5370 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Ningxia it was 5480 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The average value of the ferromanganese silicon index was 5717 yuan/ton, up 59 yuan; the SF main contract basis was - 306 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan; the SM main contract basis was - 198 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of South African ore: Mn38 lump at Tianjin Port was 24 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; the price of silica (98% in the northwest) was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of secondary metallurgical coke in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of semi - coke (medium - sized in Shenmu) was 760 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan [2]. - The manganese ore port inventory was 4.525 million tons, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The operating rate of ferromanganese silicon enterprises was 45.68%, down 1.70 percentage points; the operating rate of silicon ferroalloy enterprises was 34.84%, unchanged [2]. - The supply of ferromanganese silicon was 208,775 tons, down 5355 tons; the supply of silicon ferroalloy was 113,100 tons, up 100 tons [2]. - The inventory of ferromanganese silicon manufacturers was 198,900 tons, up 32,100 tons; the inventory of silicon ferroalloy manufacturers was 63,390 tons, down 6550 tons [2]. - The inventory days of ferromanganese silicon in national steel mills was 14.98 days, up 0.74 days; the inventory days of silicon ferroalloy in national steel mills was 14.67 days, up 0.42 days [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The demand for ferromanganese silicon from the five major steel types was 121,426 tons, down 888 tons; the demand for silicon ferroalloy from the five major steel types was 19,588.6 tons, down 148.8 tons [2]. - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.00%, up 0.15 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.38%, up 0.18 percentage points [2]. - The crude steel output was 77.3686 million tons, down 2.2896 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On September 24, the US announced to reduce the tariff on imported cars from the EU to 15%, effective retroactively from August 1 [2]. - On September 23, 190 mining companies in Indonesia were subject to administrative penalties for failing to provide reclamation and follow production quotas, and their operations were suspended for up to 60 days. Most of the coal mines shut down were long - term shut - down mines, so the impact on current coal production and exports in Indonesia was limited [2]. - Multiple departments such as the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the Notice on Printing and Distributing the Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Building Materials Industry (2025 - 2026), proposing to strictly control the production capacity of cement and glass, prohibit the addition of new cement clinker and flat glass production capacity, and new or renovated projects must formulate production capacity replacement plans [2]. - According to the World Steel Association, the global crude steel output in August was 145.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. From January to August, the global crude steel output decreased by 1.7% year - on - year, reaching 1.2306 billion tons [2].