大越期货豆粕早报-20250925

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of soybeans and soybean meal. For soybean meal, it is expected to return to a volatile pattern in the short - term, with the M2601 contract oscillating between 2920 and 2980. For soybeans, the A2511 contract is expected to oscillate between 3880 and 3980. The market is mainly influenced by factors such as US soybean weather, Sino - US tariff negotiations, soybean supply and demand, and livestock farming conditions [8][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations are at a stalemate, and the US soybean market is oscillating above the 1000 - point mark. The US soybean weather and Sino - US trade negotiations are in a critical period. The September USDA report has a relatively neutral impact. The domestic import of soybeans remains high in September, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills is at a relatively high level. The demand for soybean meal has rebounded in August and September, but the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations persists, and soybean meal has returned to an interval - oscillating pattern [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low soybean meal inventory in domestic oil mills, and variable weather in US soybean - producing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: high volume of imported soybeans in September, and the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest with a continuous expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports price expectations [14]. - Bearish factors: a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in the output of new domestic soybeans suppresses price expectations [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: From 2015 to 2024, the global soybean harvest area, output, and total supply have generally shown an upward trend, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio has also fluctuated and increased [31]. - Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: From 2015 to 2024, the domestic soybean harvest area, output, and import volume have changed, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio has also fluctuated [32]. - Soybean and Meal Price Data: The report provides price data for soybean and meal futures and spot markets from September 16 to 24, 2025, showing the price trends and price differences between futures and spot markets [15][17]. - Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics: The report provides warehouse receipt data for soybeans and soybean meal from September 12 to 24, 2025, showing the changes in warehouse receipts [19]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided. Other Market Conditions - The export inspection of US soybeans has increased week - on - week and year - on - year. The arrival volume of imported soybeans has decreased from its high in September but has generally increased year - on - year. The soybean inventory of oil mills has reached a new high, and the soybean meal inventory has continued to increase. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills have decreased from a high level. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans has followed the decline of US soybeans, and the profit on the futures market has fluctuated slightly. The pig inventory has continued to rise, while the sow inventory has remained flat year - on - year and slightly decreased month - on - month. Pig prices have recently declined again, and piglet prices have remained weak. The proportion of large pigs in the country has increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs has slightly increased. The domestic pig - farming profit has recently deteriorated [42][44][45].