农产品早报-20250926

Group 1: Report General Information - The report is from the agricultural products team of the research center, dated September 26, 2025 [1] Group 2: Corn and Starch Analysis Price Data - Corn prices in Changchun remained at 2230 from September 19 - 25, while in Jinzhou it increased by 10 to 2260. Starch prices in Heilongjiang and Weifang stayed at 2750 and 2850 respectively. The processing profit of starch remained at -31 [2] Market Outlook - Short - term: New - season corn is about to be launched, and enterprise demand for old corn is weakening, leading to a weak price. Starch enterprises are reducing inventory by lowering raw - material corn prices and are expected to cut starch prices. [3] - Medium - to - long - term: Corn prices are expected to decline under the pressure of increased production and lower costs. Starch prices are bearish due to high inventory and expected lower raw - material costs [3] Group 3: Sugar Analysis Price Data - Sugar spot prices in Liuzhou remained at 5890 on September 25, while in Kunming it increased by 10 to 5810. The import profit from Thailand decreased by 37 to 321 [4] Market Outlook - International market: Brazil is in the peak crushing season, putting pressure on international sugar prices. The sugar - making ratio is at a record high, and future production is uncertain. [4] - Domestic market: The domestic market follows the international trend. Imported sugar is arriving at ports, and the price of processed sugar has dropped significantly, pressuring the market [4] Group 4: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Analysis Price Data - The price of 3128 cotton decreased by 5 to 14770 from September 19 - 25. The import profit of Vietnamese yarn decreased by 40 to 249 [5] Market Outlook - Cotton prices are in a consolidation phase. If there are no major macro - risks, the April low can be seen as the long - term bottom, and the downside space is limited. Attention should be paid to demand changes [5] Group 5: Egg Analysis Price Data - Egg prices in Hebei decreased by 0.04 to 3.49, and in Liaoning it decreased by 0.05 to 3.42 on September 25. The basis decreased by 10 to 660 [8] Market Outlook - Since September, egg spot prices have rebounded nearly 40% due to increased demand from school openings and holiday stocking. High inventory and cold - storage eggs limit price increases, but the price is unlikely to fall below the feed cost. Monitor the situation of chicken culling and cold - storage egg release [8] Group 6: Apple Analysis Price Data - The price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 7500 from September 19 - 25. The national inventory decreased by 110 to 14.79 [9][10] Market Outlook - In the new season, apple bag - removing is approaching. The yield in the western region may increase slightly, while Shandong is expected to have a 20% reduction. The overall national yield is not expected to differ much from last year. Consumption is in the off - season, and the price is currently stable. Monitor the final yield [10] Group 7: Pig Analysis Price Data - Pig prices in Henan Kaifeng decreased by 0.10 to 12.53, and in Hubei Xiangyang it decreased by 0.10 to 12.35 on September 25. The basis decreased by 55 to - 155 [14] Market Outlook - There are policy expectations for a production capacity inflection point next year, but in the short - term, there is supply pressure. Spot prices are hitting new lows, and futures are trading based on the weak reality. Focus on factors such as slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies [14]