芳烃橡胶早报-20250926

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, with the restart of some devices, the de - stocking pace slows down. Given the lack of unexpected performance in polyester and upcoming new production, long - term inventory build - up is expected. However, the processing fee has been at a very low level for a long time, and as PX supply gradually recovers, opportunities to expand processing fees under potential additional maintenance should be monitored [1]. - Regarding MEG, near - term domestic oil - based production has slightly reduced its load, while coal - based production has maintained its operation. Overseas, there are both maintenance and restart situations. With stable arrivals and weak shipments, port inventories have slightly increased. Although new devices have been put into operation earlier than expected and valuations have been significantly compressed, considering the subsequent increase in arrivals and high - supply expectations in the long - term, ports may start to gradually accumulate inventory. However, the current inventory level is still not high, and valuations may be slowly compressed. Attention should be paid to the support of coal - based production costs [1]. - For polyester staple fiber, the start - up rate has increased due to some devices increasing their loads. Sales have improved compared to the previous period, and inventories have continued to decline. On the demand side, the start - up rate of polyester yarn has remained stable, raw material inventory has increased, and finished - product inventories have decreased. However, the profit margin is weak. In the future, the rate of increasing the start - up rate of polyester yarn may slow down due to high finished - product inventories. The start - up rate of staple fiber will remain high due to good spot profit margins, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate [1]. - In the case of natural rubber, the national visible inventory has remained stable, and the price of Thai cup lump rubber has also been stable. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [1]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs PTA - Device Changes: Fuhai Chuang's 4.5 million - ton device restarted, and Ineos' 1.25 million - ton device stopped [1]. - Market Situation: Near - term TA maintenance has been implemented, the start - up rate has slightly decreased, polyester load has remained basically stable, inventory has slightly accumulated, the basis has weakened, and spot processing fees have slightly recovered. Domestically, the start - up rate of PX has decreased, overseas devices have operated smoothly, PXN has weakened month - on - month, the benefits of disproportionation and isomerization have remained basically stable, and the price difference between US and Asian aromatics has widened [1]. MEG - Device Changes: Xinjiang Tianye's 600,000 - ton device stopped again, and Shanxi Meijin's 300,000 - ton device underwent maintenance [1]. - Market Situation: Near - term domestic oil - based EG production has slightly reduced its load, coal - based production has maintained its operation, overseas there are both maintenance and restart situations. Arrivals have remained stable while shipments have been weak, and port inventories have slightly increased at the beginning of next week. Downstream inventory levels have increased, the basis has weakened month - on - month, and the profit - to - price ratio has shrunk [1]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Device Changes: Zhongtai and Xianglu have increased their loads, and the start - up rate has increased to 95.4% [1]. - Market Situation: Sales have improved compared to the previous period, and inventories have continued to decline. On the demand side, the start - up rate of polyester yarn has remained stable, raw material inventory has increased, finished - product inventories have decreased, but the profit margin is weak [1]. Natural Rubber - Price Changes: There have been daily and weekly changes in the prices of various types of natural rubber products such as US - dollar - denominated Thai mixed rubber, US - dollar - denominated Thai standard rubber, etc. [1]. - Market Situation: The national visible inventory has remained stable, and the price of Thai cup lump rubber has been stable due to rainfall [1].