燃料油早报-20250926

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst oscillated, the near - month spread oscillated, the basis strengthened slightly, the EW spread rebounded again, and recently had wide - range oscillations. The domestic FU is expected to oscillate more in the short - term. The low - sulfur cracking rebounded slightly but is at a historically low level compared to the same period. The LU disk remained weak this week. The third batch of export quotas was issued as expected. In the fourth quarter, the spread between domestic and foreign LU can be widened on dips, and attention should be paid to the quota usage [3][4]. Summary by Relevant Data Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From September 19 to September 25, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 increased from 382.97 to 407.73, with a change of 4.00; Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 increased from 427.48 to 442.97, with a change of 4.43; Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 increased from - 5.82 to - 4.10, with a change of 0.37; Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 increased from 668.48 to 696.42, with a change of 9.65; Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 decreased from - 241.00 to - 253.45, with a change of - 5.22; LGO - Brent M1 increased from 24.80 to 26.25, with a change of 1.60; Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 decreased from 44.51 to 35.24, with a change of 0.43 [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - From September 19 to September 25, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 increased from 390.12 to 407.32, with a change of 2.17; Singapore 180cst M1 increased from 400.69 to 416.26, with a change of 1.61; Singapore VLSFO M1 increased from 465.21 to 475.67, with a change of 7.11; Singapore Gasoil M1 increased from 87.81 to 89.89, with a change of 1.23; Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 increased from - 5.13 to - 3.83, with a change of - 0.66; Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 decreased from - 184.58 to - 189.52, with a change of - 2.00 [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From September 19 to September 25, 2025, the FOB 380cst price increased from 390.94 to 407.53, with a change of 0.71; FOB VLSFO increased from 464.79 to 473.88, with a change of 7.81; the 380 basis decreased from 0.40 to 1.25, with a change of - 0.20; the high - sulfur domestic - foreign spread increased from 6.0 to 7.6, with a change of 0.7; the low - sulfur domestic - foreign spread increased from 9.7 to 10.2, with a change of 0.8 [2]. Domestic FU Data - From September 19 to September 25, 2025, FU 01 increased from 2796 to 2887, with a change of 27; FU 05 increased from 2754 to 2830, with a change of 22; FU 09 increased from 2699 to 2738, with a change of 12; FU 01 - 05 increased from 42 to 57, with a change of 5; FU 05 - 09 increased from 55 to 92, with a change of 10; FU 09 - 01 decreased from - 97 to - 149, with a change of - 15 [2]. Domestic LU Data - From September 19 to September 25, 2025, LU 01 increased from 3362 to 3431, with a change of 64; LU 05 increased from 3337 to 3389, with a change of 42; LU 09 increased from 3308 to 3363, with a change of 44; LU 01 - 05 increased from 25 to 42, with a change of 22; LU 05 - 09 decreased from 29 to 26, with a change of - 2; LU 09 - 01 decreased from - 54 to - 68, with a change of - 20 [3]. Fundamental Data - In terms of fundamentals, Singapore's residue decreased, floating storage oscillated, ARA residue inventory decreased slightly, EIA residue decreased slightly, Fujairah inventory decreased, and high - sulfur floating storage in the Middle East increased significantly. The high - sulfur peak season in the Middle East has passed. Supported by logistics reshaping and Singapore's high - sulfur marine fuel demand, the EW spread has been repaired. Recently, refinery feedstock purchases support the 380 cracking level, and the short - term downward space is limited [4].