建信期货生猪日报-20250926

Report Information - Report Name: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: September 26, 2025 [2] Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The overall supply - demand situation of live pigs is loose, with prices likely to remain weak. On the spot side, although demand has increased, the continuous increase is not obvious, and the supply pressure is relatively large. In the futures market, the supply of live pigs before the Spring Festival is expected to increase slightly, and the 2511 and 2601 contracts are mainly dragged down by the weak spot market [9]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: On the 25th, the main 2511 contract of live pigs opened flat, then rose and then fell and fluctuated lower, closing with a negative line. The highest was 12,760 yuan/ton, the lowest was 12,665 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 12,685 yuan/ton, down 0.12% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 536 lots to 247,350 lots [8]. - Spot Market: On the 25th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 12.56 yuan/kg, down 0.09 yuan/kg from the previous day [8]. - Supply - side: In September, the planned sales volume of sample breeding enterprises was 25.7 million heads, an increase of 970,000 heads or 3.92% compared with the actual output in August, with a daily average increase of 7.39%. The slaughter weight increased slightly, and long - term pre - Spring Festival slaughter may continue to increase slightly [9]. - Demand - side: The price difference between fat and standard pigs widened slightly, and the fattening cost was still low. Currently, secondary fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state. Although the weather has turned cooler, the demand increase is not obvious, and the sales of white - striped pigs are slow. The orders of slaughtering enterprises have slightly increased, and the operating rate and slaughter volume have slightly increased. On September 25th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 143,600 heads, a decrease of 11,400 heads from the previous day, a week - on - week decrease of 6,000 heads, and a month - on - month increase of 3,400 heads [9]. 3.2 Industry News - As of September 18th, the average profit per self - breeding and self - raising live pig was 7.7 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 46 yuan/head; the average profit per purchased piglet for breeding was - 246.6 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 70.8 yuan/head [10][11]. 3.3 Data Overview - On the week of September 18th, the average market sales price of 15kg piglets was 358 yuan/head, a decrease of 36 yuan/head from the previous week [14]. - On the week of September 18th, the price difference between 150 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.16 yuan/jin, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 yuan/jin [14]. - The cost of fattening from 110 kg to 140 kg was 12.71 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.47 yuan/kg from the previous week; the cost of fattening from 125 kg to 150 kg was 12.94 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.58 yuan/kg from the previous week [14]. - On the week of September 18th, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises was 31.77%, an increase of 0.37 percentage points from the previous week and 2.22 percentage points year - on - year, with the weekly operating rate fluctuating in the range of 31.54 - 31.80 [14]. - As of the week of September 18th, the average slaughter weight of live pigs nationwide was 128.45 kg, an increase of 0.13 kg or 0.10% from the previous week [14].