白糖日报-20250926

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Sugar Daily Report [1] - Report Date: September 26, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Quotes and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market Quotes: SR601 closed at 5485 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan or 0.04%, with a position of 431,349 contracts, a decrease of 7,657 contracts; SR605 closed at 5454 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan or 0.15%, with a position of 64,361 contracts, an increase of 388 contracts; ICE US Sugar 11 Oct closed at 15.60 cents/pound, down 0.06 cents or 0.38%, with a position of 78,572 contracts, a decrease of 19,602 contracts; ICE US Sugar 11 Mar closed at 16.12 cents/pound, down 0.03 cents or 0.19%, with a position of 465,280 contracts, an increase of 3,310 contracts [7] - Market Trends: On Wednesday, the New York raw sugar futures fluctuated weakly. The London ICE white sugar futures' December contract closed down 0.9% to $458.70 per ton. The fundamentals of the sugar market have not changed much in the short term. The recent rebound in crude oil prices has slightly supported sugar prices. The raw sugar price is at a low level, and it is difficult to continue to decline, but there is also a lack of clear upward drivers. Yesterday, the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar futures rose first and then fell. The 01 contract closed at 5485 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan or 0.04%, with a reduction of 7,657 contracts. The spot prices in domestic producing areas remained unchanged. The price of Nanning sugar was 5860 yuan, and the price of Kunming sugar was 5720 yuan. Today, the night session of Zhengzhou sugar futures rose sharply, and the day session fell sharply. The main reason is that the market confirmed that Typhoon "Hagupit" had little impact on the main sugarcane areas in Guangxi and did not cause natural disasters, so the bullish sentiment dissipated. After the market, it is worth noting that the speculative short positions remained unchanged and the positions were large [7][8] Group 3: Industry News - Global Sugar Supply and Demand: Broker and analysis firm StoneX said in a report on Tuesday that the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus of 2.77 million tons in the 2025/26 season starting in October. Global sugar production is estimated at 197.5 million tons, while consumption is expected to be 194.7 million tons. StoneX said that improved crop harvests in Brazil, India, and Thailand will be sufficient to offset the expected decline in production in Europe. Earlier on Tuesday, the broker released a detailed forecast for Brazil's new crushing season, expecting an increase in sugar production in Brazil due to the expected return to normal weather conditions and an increase in newly planted sugarcane [11] - Brazilian Sugar Export: Brazilian shipping agency Williams released data showing that as of the week ending September 24, the number of vessels waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 76, down from 85 in the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded at ports was 3.1039 million tons, down from 3.2827 million tons in the previous week. Among the total sugar waiting to be exported in the week, the quantity of high-grade raw sugar (VHP) was 2.8642 million tons. According to Williams' data, the quantity of sugar waiting to be exported at Santos Port was 2.1394 million tons, and the quantity at Paranagua Port was 0.5647 million tons [11] - China's Dairy and Beverage Production: Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that China's dairy product output in August 2025 was 2.555 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%. From January to August 2025, China's cumulative dairy product output was 19.134 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1%. In addition, China's beverage output in August 2025 was 17.758 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%. From January to August 2025, China's cumulative beverage output was 128.761 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [11] Group 4: Data Overview - Trading Volume and Position of Top 20 Seats in Zhengzhou Sugar Futures: The report provides the trading volume, long position, and short position data of the top 20 seats in the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar futures, including the changes in these data [22] - Other Data Charts: The report also includes charts of spot price trends, basis, spreads, Brazilian raw sugar import profits, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts, Brazilian real exchange rate, etc. [13][15][19]