甲醇聚烯烃早报-20250926

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Methanol: The trading logic is that port pressure is transmitted to the inland. The inland has seasonal stocking demand and new device stocking increment from Lianhong, but the port will continuously cause reverse flow impact. The current price is benchmarked against the inland price, and the inland's actions are crucial. Xingxing is expected to start operation in early September, but inventory is still accumulating. Reverse flow can relieve port pressure but will affect inland valuation. Currently, the valuation, inventory, and driving forces are not favorable, so bottom - fishing still needs to wait, considering import variables such as India's purchase from Iran and unplanned maintenance [2] - Plastic (Polyethylene): The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is neutral year - on - year. Upstream and coal - chemical industries are destocking, while social inventory remains flat. Downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The import profit is around - 200 with no further increase for now. Non - standard HD injection price is stable, other price differences are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. The maintenance in September is flat compared to the previous period, and the recent domestic linear production has decreased. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and US quotes. The pressure from new devices in 2025 is significant, and the commissioning of new devices should be monitored [6] - Polypropylene: Upstream and mid - stream inventories of polypropylene are decreasing. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. Non - standard price difference is neutral. European and American markets are stable. PDH profit is around - 400, propylene is fluctuating, and powder production start - up is stable. The production scheduling of drawing is neutral. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly. Downstream orders are average, and raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the pressure on 01 is expected to be moderately excessive. If exports continue to increase or there are more PDH device overhauls, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [7] - PVC: The basis remains at 01 - 270, and the factory - delivery basis is - 480. Downstream start - up is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. The inventories of middle and upstream are continuously accumulating. During summer, Northwest devices have seasonal overhauls, and the load center is between the spring overhaul and the high - production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the realization of new production capacity and the sustainability of exports. The recent export orders have slightly decreased. The coal sentiment is positive, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC overhauls. The counter - offer for caustic soda exports is FOB380. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, the downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up [7] 3. Summary by Product Methanol - Price Data: From September 19 to 25, 2025, the动力煤期货 price remained at 801, the Jiangsu spot price decreased from 2260 to 2252, and other prices had minor changes [2] - Profit and Basis: Import profit was generally stable, and the main contract basis and MTO profit on the disk remained unchanged during this period [2] Plastic (Polyethylene) - Price Data: From September 19 to 25, 2025, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained stable, some domestic polyethylene prices had minor fluctuations, and the main contract futures price increased by 27 [6] - Inventory and Profit: The two - oil inventory remained at 63, and the import profit was around - 200 with no further increase [6] Polypropylene - Price Data: From September 19 to 25, 2025, the Shandong propylene price decreased from 6580 to 6450, and other prices had corresponding changes. The main contract futures price increased by 21 [7] - Inventory and Profit: The two - oil inventory remained at 63, the export profit was relatively stable, and the PDH profit was around - 400 [7] PVC - Price Data: From September 19 to 25, 2025, the Northwest calcium carbide and Shandong caustic soda prices remained stable, and the East China calcium carbide - based PVC price increased from 4830 to 4800 [7] - Profit and Inventory: The PVC comprehensive profit was - 100, and the inventory contradiction was accumulating slowly [7]