《黑色》日报-20250926

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][4][6] 2. Core Views Steel - Steel supply and demand have increased month - on - month, with the apparent demand of five major steel products rising to 8.74 million tons and inventory starting to decline. The supply - demand gap has narrowed. Considering high steel exports, seasonal improvement in demand, and a positive macro - environment, steel prices are expected to remain in a high - level oscillatory range. The recommended operation is to try long positions with a light position and hold short positions on the January hot - rolled coil and rebar spread [1] Iron Ore - As of the previous day's close, the iron ore 2601 contract showed a strong oscillatory trend. Supply - side global shipments decreased week - on - week while port arrivals increased. Demand - side, steel mill profit margins slightly declined, but daily hot - metal production increased. The fundamentals improved slightly, but were still insufficient for the peak season. The port inventory increased, and the steel mill inventory also rose. Iron ore is in a tight - balance situation, with a recommended trading range of 780 - 850. The strategy is to go long on iron ore 2601 on dips and recommend an arbitrage of long iron ore and short coke [4][6] Coke - As of the previous day's close, the coke futures rebounded. Spot prices are expected to gradually rise, with a possible 2 - 3 round increase. Supply - side, rising coking coal prices led to some losses for coke enterprises and a decline in production. Demand - side, steel mills continued to resume production, and hot - metal production increased. Inventory - side, coke plants and ports reduced inventory, while steel mills increased inventory. The strategy is to go short on the coke 2601 contract at high levels in the range of 1650 - 1800 and recommend an arbitrage of long coking coal and short coke [6] 3. Summary by Directory Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in different regions showed little change, with some contract prices fluctuating slightly. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China increased by 10 yuan/ton to 3290 yuan/ton, and the 10 - contract price increased by 3 yuan/ton to 3074 yuan/ton [1] Cost and Profit - The cost of steel billets remained stable, while the cost of some steel products changed slightly. Profits of different steel products in various regions also changed, such as the East China hot - rolled coil profit increasing by 1 yuan to 143 yuan [1] Production - The daily average hot - metal production increased by 1.0 to 242.0, a 0.4% increase. The production of five major steel products increased by 1.1% to 864 tons. The production of rebar remained unchanged, while the production of hot - rolled coil decreased by 0.7% [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 0.6% to 15.106 million tons. Rebar inventory decreased by 2.1% to 6.363 million tons, and hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 0.7% to 3.805 million tons [1] Transaction and Demand - The building materials transaction volume increased by 12.9% to 104,000 tons. The apparent demand of five major steel products increased by 2.8% to 8.741 million tons, and the apparent demand of rebar increased by 5.0% to 2.204 million tons [1] Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs and spot prices of different iron ore varieties increased slightly, with the 5 - 9 spread and 1 - 5 spread decreasing by 2.4%, and the 9 - 1 spread increasing by 2.4% [4] Supply - The 45 - port weekly arrivals increased by 13.2% to 26.75 million tons, while the global weekly shipments decreased by 6.9% to 33.248 million tons. The national monthly import volume increased by 0.6% to 105.225 million tons [4] Demand - The daily average hot - metal production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.6% to 242.4 tons, and the 45 - port daily average unloading volume increased by 2.4% to 339.2 tons. The national monthly pig iron and crude steel production decreased by 1.4% and 2.9% respectively [4] Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 0.9% to 139.3097 million tons, the 247 - steel - mill imported ore inventory increased by 3.5% to 93.094 million tons, and the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills increased by 9.1% to 24 days [4] Coke and Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - Coke and coking coal contract prices increased, with the coking profit decreasing by 11 yuan/ton and the sample coal - mine profit increasing by 4.2% [6] Supply - Coke production decreased by 0.6%, while coking coal production increased, with raw coal production increasing by 1.3% and clean coal production increasing by 1.8% [6] Demand - The hot - metal production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.6%, and the demand for coke was supported [6] Inventory - Coke inventory increased slightly, with coke plants and ports reducing inventory and steel mills increasing inventory. Coking coal inventory also increased, with coal mines and ports reducing inventory and coke plants and steel mills increasing inventory [6]