建信期货油脂日报-20250926

Report Information - Report Date: September 26, 2025 [2] - Industry: Oils and Fats [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - In the short - term, the 01 contract is expected to fluctuate within a range, while the 05 contract should be traded with a strategy of low - buying and rolling long. In the long - term, the trend of oils and fats is bullish due to favorable biodiesel policies. Attention should be paid to China - US negotiations and biofuel policies [8] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Market Review: In the East China market, the spot price of Grade 3 rapeseed oil is OI2601 + 250, and from October to November it is OI2601 + 260. The price of Grade 1 rapeseed oil in October is OI2601 + 360, and from November to December it is OI2601 + 380. The basis price of Grade 1 soybean oil in the East China market is 01 + 220 from December to January, 01 + 240 from December to February, 01 + 200 from January to March, and 05 + 250 from April to July. In the Guangdong market, palm oil quotes from traders are stable, with 18 - degree palm oil priced at 01 + 140 in Guangzhou warehouse and 01 + 120 in Dongguan warehouse, 24 - degree and 28 - degree palm oil at 01 - 40 in Dongguan warehouse [7] - Operational Suggestions: Argentina has resumed tariffs as the $7 billion registration quota for agricultural tax exemptions has been used up. In July, Indonesia's palm oil inventory increased by 1.5% month - on - month to 2.57 million tons due to increased production and slower exports. In 2026, Indonesia's palm oil exports to the EU are expected to grow. Malaysia's high - frequency data shows a decline in production but favorable export data. Rapeseed oil continues to reduce inventory in the short term, with concentrated supply and rising basis prices. Domestic oils and fats supply is sufficient this year but may be in short supply in the first quarter of next year. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the 05 contract should be traded with a low - buying and rolling long strategy [8] 2. Industry News - From September 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 4.26% month - on - month, with a decline of 8.23% in Peninsular Malaysia, an increase of 0.73% in Sabah, an increase of 7.63% in Sarawak, and an increase of 2.64% in East Malaysia [9] - From September 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 1.185422 million tons, an increase of 11.3% compared to 1.065005 million tons from August 1 - 25 [9] 3. Data Overview - The report presents data on the spot prices of East China's Grade 3 rapeseed oil, Grade 4 soybean oil, and South China's 24 - degree palm oil, as well as the basis changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, and the price spreads of palm oil contracts. It also includes the exchange rates of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan and the Malaysian ringgit [11][13][14][21][26][27]