大越期货尿素早报-20250926

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The urea market shows a mixed situation with a generally bearish domestic fundamental outlook but some bullish factors. The overall supply in the domestic market exceeds demand significantly, and it is expected that the UR contract will fluctuate today. The main influencing factors are the strong international prices and weak domestic demand, and the key risk lies in changes in export policies [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: The urea futures market has been fluctuating weakly recently. The current daily production and operating rate have slightly declined but remain at a relatively high level, and the inventory is generally high. On the demand side, the operating rate of compound fertilizers in industrial demand has increased, the operating rate of melamine is neutral, and agricultural demand has entered the off - season. The overall supply in the domestic urea market still significantly exceeds demand, the theoretical export profit has continued to reach new highs, but the export volume has decreased due to policy and other reasons. The spot price of the delivery product is 1730 (+30), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 56, with a premium/discount ratio of 3.2%, which is bullish [4]. - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 142.1 million tons (+5.1), which is bearish [4]. - Futures Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - Main Position: The net long position of the UR main contract has increased, which is bullish [4]. - Expectation: The main urea contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. International urea prices are strong, the export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations, and the overall domestic supply still significantly exceeds demand. It is expected that the UR will fluctuate today [4]. - Likely Influencing Factors: Bullish factor is the strong international price; bearish factors are the high operating rate and daily production, and weak domestic demand. The main logic lies in the marginal changes of international prices and domestic demand [5]. Spot, Futures, and Inventory Data - Spot: The spot price of the delivery product is 1730 (+30), the Shandong spot price is 1730 (+30), the Henan spot price is 1740 (unchanged), and the FOB China price is 3210 [6]. - Futures: The price of the 01 contract is 1674 (+1), the basis is 56 (+29), the price of the UR05 contract is 1727 (+3), and the price of the UR09 contract is 1747 (+2) [6]. - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 142.1 million tons (+5.1), the UR manufacturer inventory is 95.7 million tons (unchanged), and the UR port inventory is 46.4 million tons (unchanged) [6]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2023, the urea production capacity has been increasing year - by - year, with growth rates ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. The production volume, net import volume, apparent consumption, and actual consumption have also shown corresponding changes. For example, in 2023, the production capacity was 3893.5, the production volume was 3193.59, the net import volume was 293.13, the apparent consumption was 3486.72, and the actual consumption was 3486.69. The import dependence has generally shown a downward trend, from 18.6% in 2018 to 8.4% in 2023. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [9].