大越期货纯碱早报-20250926

Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory levels. The industry's supply - demand mismatch has not been effectively improved. In the short term, soda ash is expected to fluctuate weakly [2][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Daily View - Fundamental factors: Alkali plant maintenance is rare, supply remains high; downstream float glass daily melting volume is stable, while photovoltaic daily melting volume continues to decline, terminal demand is average, and soda ash plant inventory is at a historically high level; this is a bearish factor [2]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,220 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,315 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 95 yuan, indicating that the futures price is higher than the spot price; this is a bearish factor [2]. - Inventory: The national soda ash plant inventory is 165.15 tons, a 5.93% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average; this is a bearish factor [2]. - Market trend: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward; this is a neutral factor [2]. - Main position: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing; this is a bearish factor [2]. - Expectation: The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. 2. Influencing Factors - Bullish factors: The peak maintenance period of the year is approaching, and production is expected to decline [3]. - Bearish factors: Since 2023, soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year, with industry output at a historically high level; downstream photovoltaic glass has cut production, reducing the demand for soda ash; the positive sentiment of macro - policies has faded [4]. 3. Main Logic The supply of soda ash is high, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level for the same period, and the industry's supply - demand mismatch has not been effectively improved [5]. 4. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract has increased from 1,307 yuan/ton to 1,315 yuan/ton, a 0.61% increase; the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe has increased from 1,210 yuan/ton to 1,220 yuan/ton, a 0.83% increase; the main basis has changed from - 97 yuan to - 95 yuan, a - 2.06% change [6]. 5. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,220 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan increase from the previous day [11]. - Production profit: The profit of heavy soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process is - 96.75 yuan/ton, and that of the East China co - production process is - 108.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [14]. - Operating rate and production: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 85.53%. The weekly production of soda ash is 74.57 tons, including 41.77 tons of heavy soda ash, and the production is at a historical high [17][19]. - Capacity changes: In 2023, the new production capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 750 tons, with an actual production of 100 tons [20]. 6. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - Production - sales ratio: The weekly production - sales ratio of soda ash is 103.56% [23]. - Downstream demand: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 16.02 tons, and the operating rate of 76.01% is stable; the price of photovoltaic glass continues to fall, and under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the daily melting volume in production continues to decline significantly [26][32]. 7. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The national soda ash plant inventory is 165.15 tons, a 5.93% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [35]. 8. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand gap, and growth rates [36].