PTA、MEG早报-20250926

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - PTA futures followed the cost side to open low and move low. PTA's own device restarts and reduces production simultaneously, currently having limited impact on the market. The spot basis is running weakly. It is expected that PTA spot prices will fluctuate in the short term, mainly affected by the cost side. Attention should be paid to the changes in upstream and downstream devices and polyester production and sales [5] - The price center of ethylene glycol (MEG) rebounded slightly on Thursday, with general market discussions. The MEG futures oscillated within a range, and the basis of near - term spot weakened significantly. It is expected that the price center of MEG will be adjusted at a low level in the short term, and attention should be paid to device and production - sales changes. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, and the futures performance is under pressure [7] - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upper resistance level should be watched for the futures rebound [12] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.前日回顾 - Not provided in the content 2.每日提示 - PTA: The previous day, PTA futures fluctuated and rose. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was general, and the spot basis changed little. The September goods were negotiated at a discount of 70 - 75 to the 01 contract, with the price negotiation range around 4550 - 4615. The mainstream of mid - October was traded at 01 - 50, and the end - October was traded at a discount of 45 - 50 to the 01 contract. The current mainstream spot basis is 01 - 73. The spot price is 4585, the basis of the 01 contract is - 93, and the futures is at a premium. The PTA factory inventory is 3.75 days, a decrease of 0.05 days compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The net short position of the main contract decreased [5][6] - MEG: On Thursday, the price center of ethylene glycol rebounded slightly, with general market discussions. The intraday MEG futures oscillated within a range, and the basis of near - term spot weakened significantly. In the morning, the low - level basis of spot was traded at a premium of about 56 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. The basis of far - month futures weakened limitedly due to less market trading. In the afternoon, the futures oscillated narrowly, and the basis changed little. In US dollars, the external price center of ethylene glycol was narrowly sorted, and the recent shipments were negotiated around 508 - 510 US dollars/ton, with the intraday recent shipments traded around 505 - 509 US dollars/ton. The spot price is 4311, the basis of the 01 contract is 65, and the futures is at a discount. The total inventory in East China is 40.43 tons, an increase of 2.26 tons compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The main contract has a net short position, and the short position decreased [7][8] 3.今日关注 - Not provided in the content 4.基本面数据 - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the PTA production capacity, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, export, total demand, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025, as well as the year - on - year changes and supply - demand gaps [13] - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the ethylene glycol production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, export, total demand, port inventory, and inventory changes from January 2024 to December 2025, as well as the year - on - year changes and supply - demand gaps [14] 5.价格相关 - Multiple price - related charts are provided, including the spot price, production profit, capacity utilization rate, inventory, futures spreads, basis, and spot spreads of PET bottle chips, PTA, and MEG from 2020 to 2025 [16][19][23][24][26][30][33][37][40] 6.库存分析 - Multiple inventory - related charts are provided, including the factory inventory of PTA, MEG, PET slices, and polyester fiber, as well as the inventory days of various polyester products in Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms from 2020 to 2025 [42][44][47][51] 7.聚酯上下游开工 - Multiple charts are provided to show the开工 rates of polyester upstream (PTA, paraxylene, ethylene glycol) and downstream (polyester factories, Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms) from 2020 to 2025 [53][57] 8.利润相关 - Multiple charts are provided to show the production profits of PTA, MEG (produced by different methods), polyester fiber (short - fiber, long - fiber DTY, POY, FDY) from 2022 to 2025 [62][63][66]