《特殊商品》日报-20250926

Group 1: Natural Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The 01 contract range is expected to be between 15,000 - 16,500. Follow - up attention should be paid to the raw material output in the peak - production season of the main producing areas. If the raw material output is smooth, consider a short - selling strategy at the upper limit of the range; if the raw material output is not smooth, the rubber price is expected to continue to operate within the range [1]. Summary by Directory - Spot Price and Basis: On September 25, the price of Yunnan Guofu full - latex (SCRWF) in Shanghai was 14,850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a 0.34% increase. The full - milk basis was - 820 yuan/ton, up 12.20%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber remained unchanged at 14,850 yuan/ton. The non - standard price difference was - 720 yuan/ton, up 6.49%. The FOB intermediate price of cup rubber in the international market was 50.45 Thai baht/kg, up 0.20%, and the FOB intermediate price of glue was 55.30, down 0.90%. The price of natural rubber lumps in Xishuangbanna was 13,200 yuan/ton, and the price of glue was 14,400 yuan/ton, both unchanged. The market mainstream price of raw materials in Hainan was 13,200 yuan/ton, down 1.49%, and the market mainstream price of foreign rubber raw materials in Hainan remained unchanged at 9,100 yuan/ton [1]. - Inter - month Spread: The 9 - 1 spread was - 15 yuan/ton, up 50.00%; the 1 - 5 spread was 55 yuan/ton, down 26.67%; the 5 - 9 spread was - 40 yuan/ton, up 11.11% [1]. - Fundamental Data: In July, Thailand's production was 421,600 tons, up 1.61%; Indonesia's production was 197,500 tons, up 12.09%; India's production was 45,000 tons, down 2.17%; China's production was 101,300 tons, down 1.30%. The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires for automobile tires was 73.58%, down 0.08%, and the weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.72%, up 0.06%. In August, domestic tire production was 10,295,400 tons, up 9.10%, and the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 63,010,000 pieces, down 5.46%. In July, the total import volume of natural rubber was 474,800 tons, up 2.47%. In August, the import volume of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) was 660,000 tons, up 4.76%. The daily production cost of dry rubber (STR20) in Thailand was 13,007 yuan/ton, up 0.34%, and the daily production profit was - 213 yuan/ton, up 49.53%. The daily production cost of dry rubber (RSS3) was 17,123 yuan/ton, down 0.24%, and the daily production profit was 2,677 yuan/ton, up 1.56% [1]. - Inventory Change: The bonded area inventory (bonded + general trade inventory) was 286,639 tons, down 0.95%. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE was 44,553 tons, down 3.07%. The weekly inbound rate of dry rubber in the bonded warehouse in Qingdao was 2.47%, up 0.88%, and the outbound rate was 6.44%, down 1.50%. The weekly inbound rate of dry rubber in general trade in Qingdao was 9.62%, up 6.19%, and the outbound rate was 9.58%, up 6.03% [1]. Group 2: Log Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Currently, the log market shows a volatile pattern, with a trading volume of only about 12,000 lots, and the market maintains a narrow - range fluctuation around 800. As the traditional peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" approach, attention should be paid to whether the shipment volume improves significantly after entering the seasonal peak season. The current daily average shipment volume is around 60,000 cubic meters, but it has not exceeded 70,000 cubic meters. From the perspective of delivery logic, buyers' willingness to take delivery is poor, and sellers' hedging positions suppress the market, lacking a strong upward driving force. If the fundamentals remain in a weak - balance state, the market is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. Under the current pattern of "weak reality and strong expectation", it is recommended to go long at low prices [2]. Summary by Directory - Futures and Spot Prices: On September 26, the price of log 2511 was 803 yuan/cubic meter, up 4.5 yuan/cubic meter from the previous day, with a 0.56% increase; the price of log 2601 was 823 yuan/cubic meter, up 4 yuan/cubic meter; the price of log 2603 was 827 yuan/cubic meter, up 2.5 yuan/cubic meter; the price of log 2605 was 830 yuan/cubic meter, up 2.5 yuan/cubic meter. The 11 - 01 spread was - 15.5 yuan/cubic meter, up 0.5 yuan/cubic meter; the 11 - 03 spread was - 19.5 yuan/cubic meter. The basis of the 11 - contract was - 53 yuan/cubic meter, and the basis of the 01 - contract was - 4 yuan/cubic meter. The price of 3.9A small - sized radiata pine at Rizhao Port was 710 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged; the price of 3.9A medium - sized radiata pine was 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged; the price of 3.9A large - sized radiata pine was 880 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged. The price of 4A small - sized radiata pine at Taicang Port was 720 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged; the price of 4A medium - sized radiata pine was 770 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged; the price of 4A large - sized radiata pine was 820 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged. The price of spruce 11.8 at Rizhao Port was 1,150 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged. The CFR price of 4 - meter medium - sized A radiata pine was 114 US dollars/JAS cubic meter, unchanged, and the CFR price of 11.8 - meter spruce was 128 euros/JAS cubic meter, unchanged [2]. - Cost: Import Cost Calculation: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.119, down 0.01. The theoretical import cost was 799.14 yuan/cubic meter, up 0.11 yuan/cubic meter, with a 0% increase, calculated based on a 15% over - length [2]. - Supply: In August, the port shipping volume from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 1.666 million cubic meters, down 3.87% from July. The number of ships at the port was 44, down 6.38% from July. As of September 19, the total inventory of coniferous logs in China was 2.92 million cubic meters, down 100,000 cubic meters from the previous week [2]. - Demand: As of September 12, the daily average shipment volume of logs was 59,800 cubic meters, down 31,000 cubic meters from the previous week. This week, 10 New Zealand log ships are expected to arrive, an increase of 4 from the previous week, with a total arrival volume of about 336,000 cubic meters, an increase of 126,000 cubic meters from the previous week [2]. Group 3: Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View In terms of fundamentals, the regulation effect on the supply side is less than expected, and the pattern of over - capacity in the industry remains unchanged. At the same time, the inventory of downstream component links is high, and the price has loosened. It is expected that before the National Day holiday, the polysilicon price will mainly remain range - bound, with a possible fluctuation range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton. Follow - up attention should be paid to whether the national - level policies on capacity clearance and industry stockpiling will issue specific timetables and implementation details, observe the actual operating rate and production - cut implementation of polysilicon enterprises, and track the inventory digestion progress and new order demand of downstream photovoltaic component factories [3]. Summary by Directory - Spot Price and Basis: On September 25, the average price of N - type re -投料 was 52,550 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a 0.10% increase. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 50,500 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan/ton, with a 2.02% increase. The N - type material basis (average price) was 1,185 yuan/ton, up 5.80%. The average price of N - type silicon wafers (210mm) was 1.70 yuan/piece, unchanged. The average price of N - type silicon wafers (210R) was 1.39 yuan/piece, down 0.71%. The average price of single - crystal Topcon battery cells (210R) was 0.288 yuan/piece, unchanged. The average price of Topcon components (210mm, distributed) was 0.683 yuan/watt, unchanged. The average price of N - type 210mm components for centralized projects was 0.679 yuan/watt, up 0.15% [3]. - Futures Price and Inter - month Spread: The main contract price was 21,365 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton, with a - 0.03% decrease. The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract was 50 yuan/ton, down 91.80%. The spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract was - 2,315 yuan/ton, up 3.34%. The spread between the second - continuous and the third - continuous contract was 420 yuan/ton, up 20.00%. The spread between the third - continuous and the fourth - continuous contract was 295 yuan/ton, up 637.50%. The spread between the fourth - continuous and the fifth - continuous contract was - 180 yuan/ton, up 20.00%. The spread between the fifth - continuous and the sixth - continuous contract was 240 yuan/ton, up 637.50% [3]. - Fundamental Data (Weekly): The silicon wafer production was 13.78 GW, down 1.01%. The polysilicon production was 3.11 kilotons, up 0.32% [3]. - Fundamental Data (Monthly): The polysilicon production was 131.7 kilotons, up 23.31%. The polysilicon import volume was 0.1 kilotons, down 9.63%. The polysilicon export volume was 0.3 kilotons, up 40.12%. The net export volume of polysilicon was 0.2 kilotons, up 94.25%. The silicon wafer production was 56.04 GW, up 6.24%. The silicon wafer import volume was 0.05 kilotons, up 74.18%. The silicon wafer export volume was