沪镍、不锈钢早报-20250926

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the given content 2. Core Views For沪镍 - The outer - market price of nickel has dropped significantly and is trading below the 20 - day moving average. The price of nickel ore is firm, and freight rates are stable with a slight increase. The price of nickel iron has risen slightly, but nickel - iron enterprises are still in the red. Stainless - steel inventory is falling, and the "Golden September and Silver October" period has seen good inventory reduction. New - energy vehicle production and sales data are good, but the loading of ternary batteries is declining, with limited boost to nickel demand. The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The basis is positive, LME inventory is unchanged, and Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts have increased. The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the main position is net short with an increase in short positions.沪镍2511 will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [2] For Stainless Steel - The spot price of stainless steel is flat. In the short term, the price of nickel ore and freight rates are firm, and the price of nickel iron is stable with a slight increase, so the cost line is firm. Stainless - steel inventory is falling, and the "Golden September and Silver October" period has seen good inventory reduction. The basis is positive, and the futures warehouse receipts have decreased. The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average. Stainless steel 2511 will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - Futures Prices: On September 25, the price of沪镍主力 was 122,990, up 1,540 from the previous day; the price of伦镍电 was 15,240, down 195; the price of stainless steel主力 was 12,930, up 35. The nickel index on the Wuxi trading center was 121,250, down 900, and the cold - roll index was 12,560, down 30 [11] - Spot Prices: On September 25, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 124,050, up 1,600; the price of 1金川 nickel was 125,200, up 1,550; the price of 1 imported nickel was 123,225, up 1,625; the price of nickel beans was 125,350, up 1,600. The prices of cold - roll 304*2B in Wuxi, Foshan, Hangzhou, and Shanghai remained unchanged [11] Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of September 19, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 29,834 tons, with the futures inventory at 25,843 tons, an increase of 2,334 tons and 2,314 tons respectively. On September 25, the LME nickel inventory was 230,586 (unchanged), the沪镍 (warehouse receipts) was 25,105, up 134, and the total inventory was 255,691, up 134 [13][14] Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - On September 19, the inventory in Wuxi was 579,200 tons, in Foshan was 288,000 tons, and the national inventory was 987,100 tons, a decrease of 25,400 tons compared to the previous period. The inventory of the 300 - series was 617,900 tons, a decrease of 5,800 tons. On September 25, the stainless - steel warehouse receipts were 87,803, a decrease of 430 [18][19] Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron Prices - On September 25, the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 57 dollars per wet ton, unchanged; the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni0.9%) was 29 dollars per wet ton, unchanged. The freight rates from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port remained unchanged. The price of high - nickel (8 - 12) was 955 yuan per nickel point, down 0.5; the price of low - nickel (below 2) was 3,450 yuan per ton, unchanged [21] Stainless Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost was 13,181, the scrap - steel production cost was 13,519, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost was 16,993 [23] Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The imported price was converted to 122,838 yuan per ton [26]