Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Fundamentals: Overall, the fundamentals are considered neutral. Supply - side production is relatively high, with the weekly output of lithium carbonate last week at 20,363 tons, a 2.00% increase from the previous week and higher than the historical average. Demand - side inventories of downstream enterprises have increased, with the inventory of phosphoric acid iron - lithium sample enterprises at 96,217 tons, a 0.81% increase, and that of ternary material sample enterprises at 17,545 tons, a 0.09% increase. Cost - side ore production is in a loss state, while the cost of the salt - lake end is significantly lower, with sufficient profit margins [8]. - Market Outlook: The supply - demand pattern is shifting towards demand - led. It is expected that the production of lithium carbonate in September 2025 will be 86,730 tons, a 1.75% increase from August, and the import volume will be 19,500 tons, a 10.74% decrease from August. It is predicted that the demand will strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced. The price of lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 72,940 - 75,140 yuan/ton [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Supply: Last week, the lithium carbonate output was 20,363 tons, a 2.00% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. It is predicted that the output in September 2025 will be 86,730 tons, a 1.75% increase from August [8]. - Demand: The inventory of phosphoric acid iron - lithium sample enterprises was 96,217 tons, a 0.81% week - on - week increase, and that of ternary material sample enterprises was 17,545 tons, a 0.09% week - on - week increase. It is expected that demand will strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced [8]. - Cost: The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate is 75,328 yuan/ton, a 0.04% daily increase, with a production profit of - 2,650 yuan/ton; the cost of purchasing lithium mica is 78,729 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a production profit of - 8,042 yuan/ton. The cost of the salt - lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins [8]. - Basis: On September 25th, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,750 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 290 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was at a discount to the futures price [8]. - Inventory: The smelter inventory was 34,456 tons, a 4.85% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 59,495 tons, a 2.09% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average; the overall inventory was 137,531 tons, a 0.70% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average [8]. - Market Trend: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above the MA20. The main position is net short, with a decrease in short positions [8]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - Futures Price: The futures prices of various contracts have increased to varying degrees. For example, the 11 - contract futures price increased by 1,160 yuan/ton, a 1.59% increase [13]. - Spot Price: The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,750 yuan/ton, a 0.14% decrease from the previous day; the spot price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,500 yuan/ton, a 0.14% decrease from the previous day [13]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - Price: The price of 6% spodumene was 856 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of 2% - 2.5% lithium mica concentrate was 1,875 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [13]. - Production: The monthly output of lithium ore has increased, with the monthly output of lithium ore from spodumene being 264,720 tons, a 4.96% increase; the monthly output of lithium ore from lithium mica being 316,400 tons, an 8.84% increase [15]. - Import and Export: The monthly import volume of lithium ore has decreased, with the monthly import volume of lithium concentrate being 470,599 tons, an 18.32% decrease. The monthly export volume of lithium carbonate was 2,741,411 kg, a 34.94% increase [15]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - Production: The weekly production of lithium carbonate has increased, with the total weekly production being 20,363 tons, a 2.00% increase. The monthly output has also increased, with the monthly output in August 2025 being 85,240 tons [8][15]. - Import and Export: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 21,847 tons, a 57.79% increase; the monthly export volume was 274,1411 kg, a 34.94% increase [15]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Production: The monthly output of lithium hydroxide has decreased, with the monthly output in August 2025 being 21,820 tons, a 13.31% decrease [15]. - Import and Export: The monthly export volume of lithium hydroxide was 5,673 tons, and the monthly import volume was 1,224 tons [39]. 3.6 Inventory - Lithium Carbonate: The smelter inventory was 34,456 tons, a 4.85% week - on - week decrease; the downstream inventory was 59,495 tons, a 2.09% week - on - week increase; the overall inventory was 137,531 tons, a 0.70% week - on - week decrease [8]. - Lithium Hydroxide: The report also provides data on the monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide by source [49]. 3.7 Demand - Lithium Battery - Production: The monthly output of power batteries has increased, with the total monthly output of power batteries being 62,500 GWh, an 11.81% increase [15]. - Sales: The sales volume of new energy vehicles has increased, with the sales volume being 1.395 million vehicles, a 10.54% increase [15]. 3.8 Demand - Ternary Precursor - Price: The prices of various types of ternary precursors have increased to varying degrees. For example, the average price of the 5 - series (single - crystal/power type) increased by 600 yuan/ton, a 0.74% increase [59]. - Production: The monthly output of ternary precursors has increased, with the monthly output in August 2025 being 78,440 tons [59]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Material - Price: The prices of various types of ternary materials have increased to varying degrees. For example, the average price of the 5 - series (single - crystal/power type) increased by 600 yuan/ton, a 0.74% increase [65]. - Production: The weekly production rate of ternary materials has increased, with the weekly production rate at 90%, a 1.08% increase [65]. 3.10 Demand - Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Iron - Lithium - Price: The price of phosphoric acid iron - lithium has decreased, with the price of high - end power - type phosphoric acid iron - lithium being 37,440 yuan/ton, a 0.05% decrease [13]. - Production: The monthly output of phosphoric acid iron - lithium has increased, with the monthly output in August 2025 being 85,240 tons [15]. 3.11 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - Production: The production volume of new energy vehicles has increased, with the production volume being 1.391 million vehicles, an 11.91% increase [15]. - Sales: The sales volume of new energy vehicles has increased, with the sales volume being 1.395 million vehicles, a 10.54% increase [15].
大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20250926
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-09-26 02:25